公開の場で検証

7 Jul 2026

以下のすべての確率はキックオフ前に公開され、確定されました。このページでは、それぞれを実際の結果と照らし合わせて採点します。

2試合中2試合を採点済み
0
的中
高い確信、正しい結果
1
鋭い読み
起こった結果に最も高い確率を与えた
1
想定内
結果は予想の範囲内だった
0
予想外
モデルはこの結果を予測できなかった

日別平均： Within expectations

  • ArgentinavsEgypt
    採点済み5 Julに確定
    3 – 2
    • Argentina · 実現57.9%
    • 引き分け30.4%
    • Egypt11.6%
    判定
    Strong read

    Argentina 3–2 Egypt was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.283, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

  • SwitzerlandvsColombia
    採点済み5 Julに確定
    0 – 0
    • Switzerland25.3%
    • 引き分け · 実現28.0%
    • Colombia46.7%
    判定
    Within expectations

    Switzerland 0–0 Colombia was an outcome the model rated at 28.0% (28.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.800, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 7 Jul 2026 · onthepitch