Misurato in pubblico
7 Jul 2026
Ogni probabilità qui sotto è stata pubblicata prima del calcio d'inizio e bloccata. Questa pagina valuta ciascuna in base a ciò che è realmente accaduto.
Media del giorno: Within expectations
- 3 – 2
- Argentina · realizzato57.9%
- Pareggio30.4%
- Egypt11.6%
VerdettoStrong readArgentina 3–2 Egypt was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.283, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
- ValutataBloccata 5 Jul0 – 0
- Switzerland25.3%
- Pareggio · realizzato28.0%
- Colombia46.7%
VerdettoWithin expectationsSwitzerland 0–0 Colombia was an outcome the model rated at 28.0% (28.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.800, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.