Measured in public

6 Jul 2026

Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.

2 of 2 matches graded
0
Nailed it
High confidence, right result
1
Strong read
Gave the most probability to what happened
1
Expected
Result was within the range
0
Surprise
The model didn't see this coming

Day average: Strong read

  • PortugalvsSpain
    GradedLocked 5 Jul
    0 – 1
    • Portugal29.5%
    • Draw28.1%
    • Spain · realised42.4%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Portugal 0–1 Spain was the outcome the model rated most likely (42.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.497, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

  • United StatesvsBelgium
    GradedLocked 5 Jul
    1 – 4
    • United States24.1%
    • Draw26.7%
    • Belgium · realised49.1%
    Verdict
    Strong read

    United States 1–4 Belgium was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.388, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

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Model report card — 6 Jul 2026 · onthepitch