공개적으로 측정

7 Jul 2026

아래 모든 확률은 킥오프 전에 공개되고 확정되었습니다. 이 페이지는 각 확률을 실제 결과와 비교해 채점합니다.

2경기 중 2경기 채점 완료
0
정확히 맞춤
높은 확신, 정확한 결과
1
탁월한 판단
실제 결과에 가장 높은 확률을 부여
1
예상대로
결과가 범위 안에 있었음
0
의외의 결과
모델이 예상하지 못한 결과

일별 평균: Within expectations

  • ArgentinavsEgypt
    채점 완료5 Jul 확정
    3 – 2
    • Argentina · 실현57.9%
    • 무승부30.4%
    • Egypt11.6%
    판정
    Strong read

    Argentina 3–2 Egypt was the outcome the model rated most likely (57.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.283, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

  • SwitzerlandvsColombia
    채점 완료5 Jul 확정
    0 – 0
    • Switzerland25.3%
    • 무승부 · 실현28.0%
    • Colombia46.7%
    판정
    Within expectations

    Switzerland 0–0 Colombia was an outcome the model rated at 28.0% (28.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.800, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

See how the forecast holds up

OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.

Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.

Model report card — 7 Jul 2026 · onthepitch