公開の場で検証
6 Jul 2026
以下のすべての確率はキックオフ前に公開され、確定されました。このページでは、それぞれを実際の結果と照らし合わせて採点します。
2試合中2試合を採点済み
0
的中
高い確信、正しい結果
1
鋭い読み
起こった結果に最も高い確率を与えた
1
想定内
結果は予想の範囲内だった
0
予想外
モデルはこの結果を予測できなかった
日別平均： Strong read
Portugal 0–1 Spain was the outcome the model rated most likely (42.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.497, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
United States 1–4 Belgium was the outcome the model rated most likely (49.1% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.388, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.