Measured in public
3 Jul 2026
Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.
Day average: Within expectations
- GradedLocked 28 Jun2 – 0
- Switzerland · realised39.0%
- Draw27.9%
- Algeria33.1%
VerdictWithin expectationsSwitzerland 2–0 Algeria was the outcome the model rated most likely (39.0% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.560, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Switzerland8Johan ManzambiSTOpened the scoring for Switzerland and created the opportunity for the second goal.8Breel EmboloSTScored Switzerland's second goal and was a constant threat, despite being denied multiple times later.8Ricardo RodriguezLBDoubled Switzerland's lead with a precise strike, contributing significantly from a defensive position.Algeria8Algerian GoalkeeperGKMade numerous crucial saves, particularly against Embolo, preventing a much wider margin of defeat for Algeria.7Farès ChaïbiAMShowcased strong dribbling ability and created multiple shooting opportunities, though he was unable to convert.6Houssem AouarAMDisplayed good passing vision and had a shot on target that tested the Swiss goalkeeper. - GradedLocked 28 Jun3 – 2
- Argentina · realised70.7%
- Draw23.9%
- Cape Verde5.4%
VerdictNailed itArgentina 3–2 Cape Verde was the outcome the model rated most likely (70.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.146, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Argentina8Lisandro MartínezCBScored two vital goals, including one in extra time, to put Argentina ahead, overcoming an earlier defensive miscue.8Cristian RomeroCBScored the decisive winning goal in extra time with a powerful header from a corner, showcasing his aerial threat.7Emiliano MartínezGKMade several critical saves, particularly in extra time, to preserve Argentina's lead, despite conceding two goals.Cape Verde9VozinhaGKDelivered an exceptional goalkeeping performance, making numerous world-class saves to keep Cape Verde competitive against a relentless Argentine attack.8Sidny Lopes CabralCMScored a spectacular and crucial overhead kick to equalize for Cape Verde in extra time, also contributing defensively with a block.7Deroy DuarteCMScored a vital equalizing goal for Cape Verde, demonstrating good finishing, but also committed a late foul on Messi. - 1 – 1
- Australia38.6%
- Draw · realised33.3%
- Egypt28.0%
VerdictWithin expectationsAustralia 1–1 Egypt was an outcome the model rated at 33.3% (33.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.672, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Australia8Patrick BeachGKMade several crucial saves, including a fantastic one from Salah, keeping Australia in contention throughout regular and extra time.7Cristian VolpatoAMShowed good attacking intent with two shots on target, testing the goalkeeper.7Harry SouttarCBScored Australia's equalizer and made a vital defensive block, but his penalty miss was costly in the shootout.Egypt8Emam AshourAMScored Egypt's opening goal with a header and had another shot on target, proving a significant offensive threat.8Mostafa ShobeirGKMade several important saves from Australian shots, contributing significantly to Egypt's defensive effort and keeping them in the game.7Ramy RabiaCBMade a crucial defensive intervention and contributed to set-piece attacks.
See how the forecast holds up
OnThePitch grades every probability against what actually happens, and publishes the calibration in the open. Subscribe to follow the retrospectives and research as they ship — one email per post, no marketing.
Already read on Substack? Follow OnThePitch there — same posts, slightly different format.