Group C · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Morocco
0:1
Scotland

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

MoroccoScotland
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Morocco1.240.54−0.70
Scotland0.590.95+0.36

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
6
12
Shots on target
0
2
Possession (%)
41%
59%
Corners
1
5
Fouls
10
8
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side wants sustained possession. Scotland's low block and Morocco's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Morocco's aggressive press (PPDA 22.2) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Morocco force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Mohamed Ouahbi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Morocco or Scotland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Morocco

Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Scotland

Scotland come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Scotland's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Scotland's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Morocco (above the line)Scotland (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 2' · I. Saibari

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Morocco minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

MoroccoScotland
  • 2'GoalI. Saibari· B. DiazI. Saibari scores for Scotland.
  • 23'Yellow cardI. Diop· HoldingI. Diop is booked — Holding.
  • SubstitutionK. Tierney· B. Gannon-DoakMorocco change: B. Gannon-Doak.60'
  • Yellow cardA. Robertson· HoldingA. Robertson is booked — Holding.65'
  • SubstitutionC. Adams· L. DykesMorocco change: L. Dykes.71'
  • SubstitutionR. Christie· K. McLeanMorocco change: K. McLean.71'
  • 84'SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiScotland change: S. Rahimi.
  • 84'SubstitutionB. El Khannouss· C. TalbiScotland change: C. Talbi.
  • 84'SubstitutionB. Diaz· A. AmaimouniScotland change: A. Amaimouni.
  • SubstitutionN. Patterson· A. RalstonMorocco change: A. Ralston.89'
  • SubstitutionJ. McGinn· R. StewartMorocco change: R. Stewart.89'
  • 90'SubstitutionA. Ounahi· S. El MourabetScotland change: S. El Mourabet.

Player involvement

Morocco

A. Robertson65' Yellow card

Scotland

I. Saibari2' Goal · 84' On
AB. Diaz2' Assist · 84' On
I. Diop23' Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Morocco win
54.7%
Draw
30.4%
Scotland win
14.8%
Morocco
1.24
expected
goals
Scotland
0.59

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    19.1%
  • 0–0
    16.7%
  • 1–1
    12.4%
  • 2–0
    12.3%
  • 0–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

0 – 1
Scotland win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Morocco win
    51.3%
  • Draw
    27.5%
  • Scotland win· realised
    21.2%
Brier score
0.961
Log loss
1.553
xG (final / predicted)
0.54 / 1.20 · Morocco
0.95 / 0.60 · Scotland
P(realised outcome)
21.2%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.