Group C · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Morocco
0:1
Scotland

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Live descriptive stats

MoroccoScotland
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Morocco1.240.54−0.70
Scotland0.590.95+0.36

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
6
12
Shots on target
0
2
Possession (%)
41%
59%
Corners
1
5
Fouls
10
8
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side wants sustained possession. Scotland's low block and Morocco's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Morocco's aggressive press (PPDA 22.2) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Morocco force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Mohamed Ouahbi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Morocco or Scotland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2
Date:
19 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Morocco

Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Scotland

Scotland come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Scotland's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Scotland's projected XI looks intact.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

실시간설명적 스탯과 지연 제공 라이브 승리 확률 · 약 30초마다 갱신

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Morocco (above the line)Scotland (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 2' · I. Saibari

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Morocco minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

MoroccoScotland
  • 2'GoalI. Saibari· B. DiazI. Saibari scores for Scotland.
  • 23'Yellow cardI. Diop· HoldingI. Diop is booked — Holding.
  • SubstitutionK. Tierney· B. Gannon-DoakMorocco change: B. Gannon-Doak.60'
  • Yellow cardA. Robertson· HoldingA. Robertson is booked — Holding.65'
  • SubstitutionC. Adams· L. DykesMorocco change: L. Dykes.71'
  • SubstitutionR. Christie· K. McLeanMorocco change: K. McLean.71'
  • 84'SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiScotland change: S. Rahimi.
  • 84'SubstitutionB. El Khannouss· C. TalbiScotland change: C. Talbi.
  • 84'SubstitutionB. Diaz· A. AmaimouniScotland change: A. Amaimouni.
  • SubstitutionN. Patterson· A. RalstonMorocco change: A. Ralston.89'
  • SubstitutionJ. McGinn· R. StewartMorocco change: R. Stewart.89'
  • 90'SubstitutionA. Ounahi· S. El MourabetScotland change: S. El Mourabet.

Player involvement

Morocco

A. Robertson65' Yellow card

Scotland

I. Saibari2' Goal · 84' On
AB. Diaz2' Assist · 84' On
I. Diop23' Yellow card
경기 전 모델킥오프 전 고정

Pre-match forecast

Morocco win
55.4%
Draw
30.4%
Scotland win
14.2%
Morocco
1.24
expected
goals
Scotland
0.59

이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    19.1%
  • 0–0
    16.7%
  • 1–1
    12.4%
  • 2–0
    12.3%
  • 0–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

0 – 1
Scotland win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Morocco win
    51.3%
  • Draw
    27.5%
  • Scotland win· realised
    21.2%
Brier score
0.961
Log loss
1.553
xG (final / predicted)
0.54 / 1.20 · Morocco
0.95 / 0.60 · Scotland
P(realised outcome)
21.2%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

전체 예측 대 결과 회고 →

라이브 확률의 작동 방식. 공개된 경기 전 예측은 라인업 확정(T-1h) 시점에 동결되어 킥오프 이후 변하지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중 표시되는 라이브 승리 확률은 같은 모델을 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 다시 읽은 것입니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 항상 지연되며, 설명적 리서치 수치일 뿐 사행성 상품도, 어떤 형태의 가격도 아닙니다. 전체 프레임은 /docs/methodology/ 에서 확인하세요.