Group C · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Morocco win51.3%
- Draw27.5%
- Scotland win21.2%
Analysis
The model gives Morocco a moderate advantage at 51.3% versus 21.2% for Scotland (draw 27.5%). The Elo ratings are within 55 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group C fixture with advance probabilities of 91.1% for Morocco and 73.6% for Scotland.
Tactical matchup
Morocco (counter attacker) meet Scotland (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Morocco press significantly higher (PPDA 22.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
Morocco will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Scotland will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Sofyan Amrabat (P(scores) 6.3%) against Ché Adams (2.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Morocco play a more direct game while Scotland build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Scotland's Steve Clarke (7.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Mohamed Ouahbi (0.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
A Group C fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
- Scotland's World Cup opponents forced to re-design kit hours before start of the tournament - after political 'war scene' imagery breaches FIFA's rules · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- The route to the final Scotland could take at World Cup 2026 · The Independent — Football · 11 Jun
- The World Cup starts TODAY! Your ultimate guide to England and Scotland's chances, the top games for your diary - and all the chaos and controversy as the planet's biggest sporting tournament kicks off · Daily Mail — Football · 11 Jun
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 2
Several key players are doubtful for this fixture, potentially impacting both sides. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Morocco v Scotland plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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