Group C · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side wants sustained possession. Scotland's low block and Morocco's transition approach could produce a cagey contest decided by set pieces and moments. Morocco's aggressive press (PPDA 22.2) against Scotland's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.0) creates a clear territory question: can Morocco force errors high up, or will Scotland play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Morocco will concede possession willingly and attack in transition. Their defensive block needs to hold without fouling in dangerous areas. Scotland defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Sofyan Amrabat's 6.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Scotland's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Steve Clarke (7 years in charge of Scotland) vs Mohamed Ouahbi (0 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
A Group C fixture where the result matters more for the standings than the headlines.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Morocco or Scotland.
- Stage:
- Group C · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 19 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Morocco
Morocco: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtNayef Aguerd, the third-choice defender, is recovering from Groin injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Scotland
Scotland come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Scotland's favour here: Morocco are managing a fitness concern over Nayef Aguerd, while Scotland's projected XI looks intact.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Morocco minus Scotland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 2'GoalI. Saibari· B. DiazI. Saibari scores for Scotland.
- 23'Yellow cardI. Diop· HoldingI. Diop is booked — Holding.
- SubstitutionK. Tierney· B. Gannon-DoakMorocco change: B. Gannon-Doak.60'
- Yellow cardA. Robertson· HoldingA. Robertson is booked — Holding.65'
- SubstitutionC. Adams· L. DykesMorocco change: L. Dykes.71'
- SubstitutionR. Christie· K. McLeanMorocco change: K. McLean.71'
- 84'SubstitutionI. Saibari· S. RahimiScotland change: S. Rahimi.
- 84'SubstitutionB. El Khannouss· C. TalbiScotland change: C. Talbi.
- 84'SubstitutionB. Diaz· A. AmaimouniScotland change: A. Amaimouni.
- SubstitutionN. Patterson· A. RalstonMorocco change: A. Ralston.89'
- SubstitutionJ. McGinn· R. StewartMorocco change: R. Stewart.89'
- 90'SubstitutionA. Ounahi· S. El MourabetScotland change: S. El Mourabet.
Player involvement
Morocco
Scotland
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–019.1%
- 0–016.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–012.3%
- 0–18.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Morocco win51.3%
- Draw27.5%
- Scotland win· realised21.2%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.