Group C · Matchday 2

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Scheduled
Morocco
–:–
Scotland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Morocco win
    51.3%
  • Draw
    27.5%
  • Scotland win
    21.2%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model gives Morocco a moderate advantage at 51.3% versus 21.2% for Scotland (draw 27.5%). The Elo ratings are within 55 points of each other — a tight matchup on recent form. A Group C fixture with advance probabilities of 91.1% for Morocco and 73.6% for Scotland.

Tactical matchup

Morocco (counter attacker) meet Scotland (low block) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Morocco press significantly higher (PPDA 22.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.

Key battlegrounds

Morocco will look to stay compact and strike on the transition — defensive discipline is non-negotiable. Scotland will aim to frustrate and limit space — set-piece quality on both ends could prove decisive. The individual battle features Sofyan Amrabat (P(scores) 6.3%) against Ché Adams (2.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Morocco play a more direct game while Scotland build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.

Situational factors

Scotland's Steve Clarke (7.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Mohamed Ouahbi (0.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

A Group C fixture that could shape the knockout-round picture for both sides.

Key numbers

51.3% / 27.5% / 21.2%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
+55Elo differentialMorocco 1822 vs Scotland 1767
1.20 – 0.60Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
1-0 (19.2%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
32.3%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
6.5%P(goal) — Youssef En-NesyriHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group C · Matchday 2

Several key players are doubtful for this fixture, potentially impacting both sides. Unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Morocco v Scotland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.