Group B · Matchday 2

Full-timeFT
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4:1
Switzerland

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Live descriptive stats

Bosnia and HerzegovinaSwitzerland
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.632.01+1.38
Switzerland1.830.24−1.59

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
13
5
Shots on target
7
3
Possession (%)
62%
38%
Corners
7
3
Fouls
7
18
Yellow cards
1
2
Red cards
0
1

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.

What decides it

Switzerland adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Ermin Bičakčić (4.5%) and Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%).

Off the pitch

Murat Yakin (5 years in charge of Switzerland) vs Sergej Barbarez (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

The model gives Bosnia and Herzegovina just 14.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Switzerland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 2
Date:
18 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Rest differential: Bosnia and Herzegovina have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Switzerland. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Availability

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.

Switzerland

Switzerland come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Switzerland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Bosnia and Herzegovina (above the line)Switzerland (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 74' · J. ManzambiGoal, 84' · R. VargasGoal, 90' · J. ManzambiGoal, 90' · E. MahmicGoal, 90' · G. Xhaka

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Bosnia and Herzegovina minus Switzerland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

Bosnia and HerzegovinaSwitzerland
  • 59'Yellow cardA. Dedic· HoldingA. Dedic is booked — Holding.
  • 61'Yellow cardE. Dzeko· RoughingE. Dzeko is booked — Roughing.
  • 63'SubstitutionB. Tahirovic· I. BasicSwitzerland change: I. Basic.
  • 64'SubstitutionE. Dzeko· E. BajraktarevicSwitzerland change: E. Bajraktarevic.
  • Yellow cardN. Elvedi· RoughingN. Elvedi is booked — Roughing.65'
  • SubstitutionD. Ndoye· J. ManzambiBosnia and Herzegovina change: J. Manzambi.71'
  • SubstitutionF. Rieder· R. VargasBosnia and Herzegovina change: R. Vargas.71'
  • SubstitutionM. Aebischer· D. SowBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Sow.71'
  • GoalJ. ManzambiJ. Manzambi scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.74'
  • 80'Red cardT. Muharemovic· TrippingT. Muharemovic is sent off — Tripping.
  • GoalR. Vargas· B. EmboloR. Vargas scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.84'
  • 86'SubstitutionE. Demirovic· J. LukicSwitzerland change: J. Lukic.
  • 86'SubstitutionI. Sunjic· A. HadziahmetovicSwitzerland change: A. Hadziahmetovic.
  • SubstitutionS. Widmer· L. JaquezBosnia and Herzegovina change: L. Jaquez.86'
  • SubstitutionB. Embolo· C. IttenBosnia and Herzegovina change: C. Itten.89'
  • GoalJ. Manzambi· R. VargasJ. Manzambi scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.90'
  • 90'+1SubstitutionK. Alajbegovic· E. MahmicSwitzerland change: E. Mahmic.
  • 90'+3GoalE. MahmicE. Mahmic scores for Switzerland.
  • Penalty scoredG. XhakaG. Xhaka converts from the spot for Bosnia and Herzegovina.90'+7

Player involvement

Bosnia and Herzegovina

J. Manzambi71' Off · 74' Goal · 90' Goal
AR. Vargas71' Off · 84' Goal · 90' Assist
G. Xhaka90'+7 Penalty scored
AB. Embolo84' Assist · 89' On
N. Elvedi65' Yellow card

Switzerland

E. Mahmic90'+1 Off · 90'+3 Goal
T. Muharemovic80' Red card
A. Dedic59' Yellow card
E. Dzeko61' Yellow card · 64' On
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Bosnia and Herzegovina win
6.6%
Draw
22.6%
Switzerland win
70.8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.63
expected
goals
Switzerland
1.83

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–1
    15.0%
  • 0–2
    14.3%
  • 1–1
    10.5%
  • 0–0
    9.1%
  • 1–2
    9.0%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.