Group B · Matchday 2
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.
What decides it
Switzerland adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. The scoring threat is evenly split: Ermin Bičakčić (4.5%) and Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%).
Off the pitch
Murat Yakin (5 years in charge of Switzerland) vs Sergej Barbarez (2 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
The model gives Bosnia and Herzegovina just 14.3% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Switzerland.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 2
- Date:
- 18 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Rest differential: Bosnia and Herzegovina have had 6 days since their previous match versus 5 for Switzerland. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.
Switzerland
Switzerland come in at close to full strength.
Bosnia and Herzegovina and Switzerland both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Bosnia and Herzegovina minus Switzerland: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 59'Yellow cardA. Dedic· HoldingA. Dedic is booked — Holding.
- 61'Yellow cardE. Dzeko· RoughingE. Dzeko is booked — Roughing.
- 63'SubstitutionB. Tahirovic· I. BasicSwitzerland change: I. Basic.
- 64'SubstitutionE. Dzeko· E. BajraktarevicSwitzerland change: E. Bajraktarevic.
- Yellow cardN. Elvedi· RoughingN. Elvedi is booked — Roughing.65'
- SubstitutionD. Ndoye· J. ManzambiBosnia and Herzegovina change: J. Manzambi.71'
- SubstitutionF. Rieder· R. VargasBosnia and Herzegovina change: R. Vargas.71'
- SubstitutionM. Aebischer· D. SowBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Sow.71'
- GoalJ. ManzambiJ. Manzambi scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.74'
- 80'Red cardT. Muharemovic· TrippingT. Muharemovic is sent off — Tripping.
- GoalR. Vargas· B. EmboloR. Vargas scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.84'
- 86'SubstitutionE. Demirovic· J. LukicSwitzerland change: J. Lukic.
- 86'SubstitutionI. Sunjic· A. HadziahmetovicSwitzerland change: A. Hadziahmetovic.
- SubstitutionS. Widmer· L. JaquezBosnia and Herzegovina change: L. Jaquez.86'
- SubstitutionB. Embolo· C. IttenBosnia and Herzegovina change: C. Itten.89'
- GoalJ. Manzambi· R. VargasJ. Manzambi scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.90'
- 90'+1SubstitutionK. Alajbegovic· E. MahmicSwitzerland change: E. Mahmic.
- 90'+3GoalE. MahmicE. Mahmic scores for Switzerland.
- Penalty scoredG. XhakaG. Xhaka converts from the spot for Bosnia and Herzegovina.90'+7
Player involvement
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.0%
- 0–214.3%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–29.0%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.