Group B · Matchday 2

← Maç öncesi tahmin
Scheduled
Bosnia and Herzegovina
:
Switzerland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    9.9%
  • Draw
    21.8%
  • Switzerland win
    68.3%

Analysis

The model rates Switzerland as clear favourites at 68.3%, with Bosnia and Herzegovina at 9.9% and the draw at 21.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 295 points in Switzerland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 97.3% for Switzerland.

Tactical matchup

Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) meet Switzerland (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Switzerland adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Ermedin Demirović (P(scores) 6.6%) against Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

Switzerland's Murat Yakin (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sergej Barbarez (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

At 9.9%, a Bosnia and Herzegovina result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.

Key numbers

9.9% / 21.8% / 68.3%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-295Elo differentialBosnia and Herzegovina 1594 vs Switzerland 1889
0.71 – 1.96Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-2 (13.3%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
44.2%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
8.7%P(goal) — Breel EmboloHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Switzerland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 2

Both teams face some squad concerns ahead of this match, including a key player for the home side; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Bosnia and Herzegovina v Switzerland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Canlı olasılık nasıl çalışır. Yayımlanan maç öncesi tahmin, kadro kilidi anında (T-1s) dondurulur ve başlama vuruşundan sonra değişmez; maç sonrası değerlendirme bu dondurulmuş sayıyı sonuçla karşılaştırır. Maç sırasında gösterilen canlı kazanma olasılığı, aynı modelin mevcut skora ve kalan süreye göre yeniden okunmasıdır. Yaklaşık dakikada bir yenilenir, her zaman gecikmelidir ve betimleyici bir araştırma rakamıdır; bir şans oyunu ürünü ya da herhangi bir türde fiyat değildir. Tam çerçeve için /docs/methodology/ sayfasına bakın.