Group B · Matchday 2
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Bosnia and Herzegovina win9.9%
- Draw21.8%
- Switzerland win68.3%
Analysis
The model rates Switzerland as clear favourites at 68.3%, with Bosnia and Herzegovina at 9.9% and the draw at 21.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 295 points in Switzerland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 97.3% for Switzerland.
Tactical matchup
Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) meet Switzerland (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Switzerland adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Ermedin Demirović (P(scores) 6.6%) against Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Switzerland's Murat Yakin (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sergej Barbarez (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.
Match storyline
At 9.9%, a Bosnia and Herzegovina result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Switzerland.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 2
Both teams face some squad concerns ahead of this match, including a key player for the home side; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Bosnia and Herzegovina v Switzerland plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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