Group B · Matchday 2

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Scheduled
Bosnia and Herzegovina
–:–
Switzerland

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    9.9%
  • Draw
    21.8%
  • Switzerland win
    68.3%
CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Analysis

The model rates Switzerland as clear favourites at 68.3%, with Bosnia and Herzegovina at 9.9% and the draw at 21.8%. The Elo gap is substantial at 295 points in Switzerland's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina and 97.3% for Switzerland.

Tactical matchup

Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) meet Switzerland (pragmatic) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.

Key battlegrounds

Switzerland adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Ermedin Demirović (P(scores) 6.6%) against Ricardo Rodriguez (7.0%) — their impact could prove decisive.

Situational factors

Switzerland's Murat Yakin (5.4 years in post) brings significantly more tenure than Sergej Barbarez (2.4 years) — squad cohesion and tactical familiarity may differ accordingly.

Match storyline

At 9.9%, a Bosnia and Herzegovina result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.

Key numbers

9.9% / 21.8% / 68.3%H / D / ACalibrated ensemble probability
-295Elo differentialBosnia and Herzegovina 1594 vs Switzerland 1889
0.71 – 1.96Expected goals (H – A)Dixon-Coles per-team rates
0-2 (13.3%)Modal scorelineMost likely exact full-time result
44.2%Both teams scoreP(both sides find the net)
8.7%P(goal) — Breel EmboloHighest anytime-scorer probability in fixture

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Switzerland.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 2

Both teams face some squad concerns ahead of this match, including a key player for the home side; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

معايرة ما بعد المباراة مجانية. عند انتهاء هذه المباراة، يُنشر ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة — الاحتمال قبل المباراة مقابل النتيجة الفعلية، وBrier score، وlog loss، وxG النهائي مقابل المتوقع — في صفحة الملخص، متاحة للجميع.

Standard Pass

That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.

The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

Standard Pass

See exactly how Bosnia and Herzegovina v Switzerland plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.