Group B · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Canada
1:1
Bosnia and Herzegovina

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Canada1.331.25−0.08
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.780.98+0.20

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
13
8
Shots on target
4
3
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
9
4
Fouls
10
20
Yellow cards
2
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.

What decides it

Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Jonathan David's 14.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Bosnia and Herzegovina's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Bosnia and Herzegovina travel 7,287km, 2x Canada's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Availability

Canada

Canada come in at close to full strength.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Canada (above the line)Bosnia and Herzegovina (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 21' · J. LukicGoal, 78' · C. Larin

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Bosnia and Herzegovina: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
  • Yellow cardA. Johnston· TrippingA. Johnston is booked — Tripping.11'
  • 21'GoalJ. Lukic· S. KolasinacJ. Lukic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • 45'Yellow cardE. Demirovic· RoughingE. Demirovic is booked — Roughing.
  • 45'+1Yellow cardJ. Lukic· RoughingJ. Lukic is booked — Roughing.
  • Yellow cardL. De Fougerolles· HoldingL. De Fougerolles is booked — Holding.53'
  • SubstitutionL. Millar· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.61'
  • SubstitutionJ. David· P. DavidCanada change: P. David.61'
  • SubstitutionT. Buchanan· A. AhmedCanada change: A. Ahmed.61'
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Lukic· S. BazdarBosnia and Herzegovina change: S. Bazdar.
  • 62'SubstitutionI. Basic· A. GigovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Gigovic.
  • 74'SubstitutionE. Bajraktarevic· I. SunjicBosnia and Herzegovina change: I. Sunjic.
  • 74'SubstitutionA. Memic· K. AlajbegovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: K. Alajbegovic.
  • SubstitutionT. Oluwaseyi· C. LarinCanada change: C. Larin.76'
  • GoalC. Larin· P. DavidC. Larin scores for Canada.78'
  • 84'SubstitutionS. Kolasinac· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.
  • SubstitutionS. Eustaquio· J. OsorioCanada change: J. Osorio.90'+1
  • 90'+3Yellow cardN. Katic· HoldingN. Katic is booked — Holding.

Player involvement

Canada

C. Larin76' Off · 78' Goal
AP. David61' Off · 78' Assist
A. Johnston11' Yellow card
L. De Fougerolles53' Yellow card

Bosnia and Herzegovina

J. Lukic21' Goal · 45'+1 Yellow card · 62' On
AS. Kolasinac21' Assist · 84' On
E. Demirovic45' Yellow card
N. Katic90'+3 Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Canada win
53.2%
Draw
28.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
18.7%
Canada
1.33
expected
goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.78

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.4%
  • 1–1
    13.3%
  • 0–0
    12.9%
  • 2–0
    10.8%
  • 0–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win
    57.9%
  • Draw· realised
    24.5%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.936
Log loss
1.407
xG (final / predicted)
1.25 / 1.38 · Canada
0.98 / 0.92 · Bosnia and Herzegovina
P(realised outcome)
24.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.