Group B · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Canada
1:1
Bosnia and Herzegovina

O confronto mais forte do dia pelo ranking FIFA combinado é grátis para todos: previsão completa e tracker ao vivo completo. Os demais jogos exigem um Standard Pass. Ver o Pass

Live descriptive stats

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Canada1.331.25−0.08
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.780.98+0.20

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
13
8
Shots on target
4
3
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
9
4
Fouls
10
20
Yellow cards
2
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.

What decides it

Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Jonathan David's 14.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Bosnia and Herzegovina's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Bosnia and Herzegovina travel 7,287km, 2x Canada's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Availability

Canada

Canada come in at close to full strength.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

Ao vivoEstatísticas descritivas e a probabilidade de vitória ao vivo (com atraso) · atualiza a cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Canada (above the line)Bosnia and Herzegovina (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 21' · J. LukicGoal, 78' · C. Larin

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Bosnia and Herzegovina: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
  • Yellow cardA. Johnston· TrippingA. Johnston is booked — Tripping.11'
  • 21'GoalJ. Lukic· S. KolasinacJ. Lukic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • 45'Yellow cardE. Demirovic· RoughingE. Demirovic is booked — Roughing.
  • 45'+1Yellow cardJ. Lukic· RoughingJ. Lukic is booked — Roughing.
  • Yellow cardL. De Fougerolles· HoldingL. De Fougerolles is booked — Holding.53'
  • SubstitutionL. Millar· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.61'
  • SubstitutionJ. David· P. DavidCanada change: P. David.61'
  • SubstitutionT. Buchanan· A. AhmedCanada change: A. Ahmed.61'
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Lukic· S. BazdarBosnia and Herzegovina change: S. Bazdar.
  • 62'SubstitutionI. Basic· A. GigovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Gigovic.
  • 74'SubstitutionE. Bajraktarevic· I. SunjicBosnia and Herzegovina change: I. Sunjic.
  • 74'SubstitutionA. Memic· K. AlajbegovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: K. Alajbegovic.
  • SubstitutionT. Oluwaseyi· C. LarinCanada change: C. Larin.76'
  • GoalC. Larin· P. DavidC. Larin scores for Canada.78'
  • 84'SubstitutionS. Kolasinac· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.
  • SubstitutionS. Eustaquio· J. OsorioCanada change: J. Osorio.90'+1
  • 90'+3Yellow cardN. Katic· HoldingN. Katic is booked — Holding.

Player involvement

Canada

C. Larin76' Off · 78' Goal
AP. David61' Off · 78' Assist
A. Johnston11' Yellow card
L. De Fougerolles53' Yellow card

Bosnia and Herzegovina

J. Lukic21' Goal · 45'+1 Yellow card · 62' On
AS. Kolasinac21' Assist · 84' On
E. Demirovic45' Yellow card
N. Katic90'+3 Yellow card
Modelo pré-jogoCongelado antes do início

Pre-match forecast

Canada win
53.2%
Draw
28.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
18.7%
Canada
1.33
expected
goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.78

A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.4%
  • 1–1
    13.3%
  • 0–0
    12.9%
  • 2–0
    10.8%
  • 0–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win
    57.9%
  • Draw· realised
    24.5%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.936
Log loss
1.407
xG (final / predicted)
1.25 / 1.38 · Canada
0.98 / 0.92 · Bosnia and Herzegovina
P(realised outcome)
24.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Retrospectiva completa: previsão vs resultado →

Como funciona a probabilidade ao vivo. A previsão pré-jogo publicada é congelada no fechamento das escalações (T-1h) e não muda após o início; a revisão pós-jogo avalia esse número congelado frente ao resultado. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo mostrada durante a partida é o mesmo modelo, relido conforme o placar e o tempo restante. Atualiza mais ou menos uma vez por minuto, está sempre com atraso e é um número descritivo de pesquisa, não um produto de jogos nem um preço de qualquer tipo. Veja /docs/methodology/ para o enquadramento completo.