Group B · Matchday 1
← Previsão pré-jogoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Canada win57.9%
- Draw24.5%
- Bosnia and Herzegovina win17.6%
Analysis
The model gives Canada a moderate advantage at 57.9% versus 17.6% for Bosnia and Herzegovina (draw 24.5%). A 190-point Elo gap gives Canada a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 95.4% for Canada and 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Tactical matchup
Canada (pragmatic) meet Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Canada adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Jonathan David (P(scores) 15.2%) against Ermedin Demirović (7.9%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Bosnia and Herzegovina face a 7,287km journey to the venue versus Canada's 3,357km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.
Match storyline
For Edin Džeko, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 1
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Calibração pós-jogo é gratuita. Quando este jogo terminar, a retrospectiva de previsão vs resultado — probabilidade pré-jogo vs resultado realizado, Brier score, log loss e xG final vs previsto — será publicada na página de retrospectiva, aberta para todos.
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That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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