Group B · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.
What decides it
Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Jonathan David's 14.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Bosnia and Herzegovina's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Bosnia and Herzegovina travel 7,287km, 2x Canada's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 12 Jun
Canada
Canada come in at close to full strength.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.
Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Bosnia and Herzegovina: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Yellow cardA. Johnston· TrippingA. Johnston is booked — Tripping.11'
- 21'GoalJ. Lukic· S. KolasinacJ. Lukic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- 45'Yellow cardE. Demirovic· RoughingE. Demirovic is booked — Roughing.
- 45'+1Yellow cardJ. Lukic· RoughingJ. Lukic is booked — Roughing.
- Yellow cardL. De Fougerolles· HoldingL. De Fougerolles is booked — Holding.53'
- SubstitutionL. Millar· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.61'
- SubstitutionJ. David· P. DavidCanada change: P. David.61'
- SubstitutionT. Buchanan· A. AhmedCanada change: A. Ahmed.61'
- 62'SubstitutionJ. Lukic· S. BazdarBosnia and Herzegovina change: S. Bazdar.
- 62'SubstitutionI. Basic· A. GigovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Gigovic.
- 74'SubstitutionE. Bajraktarevic· I. SunjicBosnia and Herzegovina change: I. Sunjic.
- 74'SubstitutionA. Memic· K. AlajbegovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: K. Alajbegovic.
- SubstitutionT. Oluwaseyi· C. LarinCanada change: C. Larin.76'
- GoalC. Larin· P. DavidC. Larin scores for Canada.78'
- 84'SubstitutionS. Kolasinac· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.
- SubstitutionS. Eustaquio· J. OsorioCanada change: J. Osorio.90'+1
- 90'+3Yellow cardN. Katic· HoldingN. Katic is booked — Holding.
Player involvement
Canada
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilità pubblicata per questa partita è fissata alla conferma delle formazioni (≈1 ora prima del calcio d'inizio) e non si aggiorna più. È il numero di cui il riepilogo post-partita rende conto. La probabilità di vittoria live nella sezione Live è una stima separata, in differita e descrittiva; non sostituisce la previsione pubblicata.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–18.7%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Canada win57.9%
- Draw· realised24.5%
- Bosnia and Herzegovina win17.6%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.