Group B · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Canada
1:1
Bosnia and Herzegovina

أقوى مواجهة في اليوم بحسب مجموع تصنيف الفيفا متاحة مجانًا للجميع: التوقعات الكاملة وأداة المتابعة المباشرة الكاملة. كل المباريات الأخرى تتطلب Standard Pass. اطّلع على الـPass

Live descriptive stats

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Canada1.331.25−0.08
Bosnia and Herzegovina0.780.98+0.20

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
13
8
Shots on target
4
3
Possession (%)
61%
39%
Corners
9
4
Fouls
10
20
Yellow cards
2
3
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Neither side has a rigid tactical identity. Both adapt to the opponent, so the first 15 minutes will reveal who imposes their plan first.

What decides it

Canada adjust shape to the opponent. That flexibility is an asset, but it takes longer to settle into a game. Jonathan David's 14.3% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Bosnia and Herzegovina's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Bosnia and Herzegovina travel 7,287km, 2x Canada's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Edin Džeko. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group B · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Availability

Canada

Canada come in at close to full strength.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

مباشرإحصاءات وصفية واحتمالية فوز مباشرة بتأخير · تتحدَّث كل ~30 ثانية

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Canada (above the line)Bosnia and Herzegovina (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 21' · J. LukicGoal, 78' · C. Larin

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Canada minus Bosnia and Herzegovina: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina
  • Yellow cardA. Johnston· TrippingA. Johnston is booked — Tripping.11'
  • 21'GoalJ. Lukic· S. KolasinacJ. Lukic scores for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • 45'Yellow cardE. Demirovic· RoughingE. Demirovic is booked — Roughing.
  • 45'+1Yellow cardJ. Lukic· RoughingJ. Lukic is booked — Roughing.
  • Yellow cardL. De Fougerolles· HoldingL. De Fougerolles is booked — Holding.53'
  • SubstitutionL. Millar· J. ShaffelburgCanada change: J. Shaffelburg.61'
  • SubstitutionJ. David· P. DavidCanada change: P. David.61'
  • SubstitutionT. Buchanan· A. AhmedCanada change: A. Ahmed.61'
  • 62'SubstitutionJ. Lukic· S. BazdarBosnia and Herzegovina change: S. Bazdar.
  • 62'SubstitutionI. Basic· A. GigovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: A. Gigovic.
  • 74'SubstitutionE. Bajraktarevic· I. SunjicBosnia and Herzegovina change: I. Sunjic.
  • 74'SubstitutionA. Memic· K. AlajbegovicBosnia and Herzegovina change: K. Alajbegovic.
  • SubstitutionT. Oluwaseyi· C. LarinCanada change: C. Larin.76'
  • GoalC. Larin· P. DavidC. Larin scores for Canada.78'
  • 84'SubstitutionS. Kolasinac· D. BurnicBosnia and Herzegovina change: D. Burnic.
  • SubstitutionS. Eustaquio· J. OsorioCanada change: J. Osorio.90'+1
  • 90'+3Yellow cardN. Katic· HoldingN. Katic is booked — Holding.

Player involvement

Canada

C. Larin76' Off · 78' Goal
AP. David61' Off · 78' Assist
A. Johnston11' Yellow card
L. De Fougerolles53' Yellow card

Bosnia and Herzegovina

J. Lukic21' Goal · 45'+1 Yellow card · 62' On
AS. Kolasinac21' Assist · 84' On
E. Demirovic45' Yellow card
N. Katic90'+3 Yellow card
نموذج ما قبل المباراةمُجمَّد قبل الانطلاق

Pre-match forecast

Canada win
53.2%
Draw
28.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina win
18.7%
Canada
1.33
expected
goals
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.78

الاحتمالية المنشورة لهذه المباراة تُثبَّت عند تأكيد التشكيلة (قبل ضربة البداية بساعة تقريبًا) ولا تتحدَّث بعدها. هذا هو الرقم الذي تحاسبه المراجعة بعد المباراة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة في قسم البث المباشر تقدير منفصل ومتأخر ووصفي؛ ولا تحل محل التوقع المنشور.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.4%
  • 1–1
    13.3%
  • 0–0
    12.9%
  • 2–0
    10.8%
  • 0–1
    8.7%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

1 – 1
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Canada win
    57.9%
  • Draw· realised
    24.5%
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina win
    17.6%
Brier score
0.936
Log loss
1.407
xG (final / predicted)
1.25 / 1.38 · Canada
0.98 / 0.92 · Bosnia and Herzegovina
P(realised outcome)
24.5%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

ملخص التوقعات مقابل النتيجة الكامل →

كيف تعمل الاحتمالية المباشرة. التوقع المنشور قبل المباراة يُجمَّد عند قفل التشكيلة (T-1h) ولا يتغير بعد ضربة البداية؛ وتقيس المراجعة بعد المباراة هذا الرقم المجمَّد مقابل النتيجة. احتمالية الفوز المباشرة المعروضة أثناء اللعب هي النموذج نفسه معاد القراءة وفق النتيجة الحالية والوقت المتبقي. تتحدَّث مرة كل دقيقة تقريبًا، ومتأخرة دائمًا، وهي رقم بحثي وصفي، وليست منتجًا للمقامرة ولا سعرًا من أي نوع. انظر /docs/methodology/ للإطار الكامل.