Group B · Matchday 1
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Canada win57.9%
- Draw24.5%
- Bosnia and Herzegovina win17.6%
Analysis
The model gives Canada a moderate advantage at 57.9% versus 17.6% for Bosnia and Herzegovina (draw 24.5%). A 190-point Elo gap gives Canada a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group B fixture with advance probabilities of 95.4% for Canada and 50.4% for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Tactical matchup
Canada (pragmatic) meet Bosnia and Herzegovina (balanced) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest.
Key battlegrounds
Canada adapt shape to the opponent — tactical flexibility gives them options but demands quick reads. The individual battle features Jonathan David (P(scores) 15.2%) against Ermedin Demirović (7.9%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Bosnia and Herzegovina face a 7,287km journey to the venue versus Canada's 3,357km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.
Match storyline
For Edin Džeko, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Stage:
- Group B · Matchday 1
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Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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