Semi-final · Match 2

EnglandvsArgentina

2026-07-15·15:00 local·Mercedes-Benz Stadium · AtlantaPredictions finalised

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0England·Argentina·

Match signals

Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.

EnglandSignal balanceArgentina
14%86%

The model rates Argentina slightly higher (40% vs 28%), and 12 of the wider signals back that up. A competitive match, but the weight of evidence favours one side.

📊What the Models Say

5 Argentina
27%Elo Rating Model51%
ModerateModerate

Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Argentina at 51% to win vs England at 27%.

28%Dixon-Coles Model38%
SlightSlight

Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Argentina at 38% to win vs England at 28%.

30%Hierarchical Poisson37%
SlightSlight

Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Argentina at 37% to win vs England at 30%.

28%Final Ensemble40%
SlightSlight

The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Argentina at 40% to win vs England at 28%.

0/3Model Agreement3/3
StrongStrong

All 3 models agree: Argentina is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.

⚽Tournament Form

3 Argentina
16pts (5W 1D 0L)Tournament Record18pts (6W 0D 0L)
SlightSlight

Argentina collected 18 points (6W 0D 0L) vs England's 16 (5W 1D 0L). A stronger tournament record.

2.17/matchGoals Scored2.83/match
SlightSlight

Argentina averaged 2.83 goals per match vs England's 2.17. More firepower coming in.

1.0 conceded/matchDefence1.0 conceded/match
Even

Similar defensive records: England 1.0, Argentina 1.0 goals conceded per match.

+7Goal Difference+11
ModerateModerate

Argentina's goal difference of +11 is better than England's +7. They outperformed opponents by more.

📈Momentum

1 England1 Argentina
+33.4Tournament Rating Change+26.7
SlightSlight

England's rating rose +33.4 during the tournament while Argentina's moved +26.7. The tournament has been kinder to England.

-0.0068Player Form Trend+0.0017
ModerateModerate

Argentina's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0017) vs England (-0.0068). Players trending upward.

🏆Team Quality

1 England2 Argentina
2020Overall Strength (Elo)2113
SlightSlight

Argentina is rated 2113 vs England's 2020 (gap: 93). That's a noticeable gap in historical team strength.

0.78 xGExpected Chance Creation0.96 xG
SlightSlight

The model expects Argentina to create 0.96 expected goals vs England's 0.78. More and better chances projected.

0.26Star Power0.29
Even

Similar star-player quality in both squads.

0.049Squad Familiarity0.043
SlightSlight

England's starters play together at club level more often (0.049 cohesion) than Argentina's (0.043). More shared understanding on the pitch.

🌍Match Conditions

1 England1 Argentina
6,673kmTravel Distance8,307km
SlightSlight

England traveled 6,673km vs Argentina's 8,307km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.

4 daysRecovery Time4 days
Even

Equal rest for both sides (4 days since their last match).

5h shiftTimezone Shift1h shift
ModerateModerate

Argentina face a 1h timezone shift vs England's 5h. Less jet lag disruption.

18 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.

Match-outcome probability

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Scoreline distribution

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Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Semi-final · Match 2
Date:
15 Jul
Venue:
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta