Semi-final · Match 1
FrancevsSpain
2026-07-14·14:00 local·AT&T Stadium · DallasPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Spain are the clear favourites (48% to France's 27%), and 7 of the wider signals confirm it. A clear probability gap, though draws (25%) keep this from being one-sided.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Spain at 47% to win vs France at 31%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Spain at 43% to win vs France at 27%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Spain at 43% to win vs France at 29%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Spain at 48% to win vs France at 27%.
All 3 models agree: Spain is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
France collected 18 points (6W 0D 0L) vs Spain's 16 (5W 1D 0L). A stronger tournament record.
France averaged 2.67 goals per match vs Spain's 1.83. More firepower coming in.
Similar defensive records: France 0.33, Spain 0.17 goals conceded per match.
France's goal difference of +14 is better than Spain's +10. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
France's rating rose +41.4 during the tournament while Spain's moved +10.6. The tournament has been kinder to France.
France's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (-0.0074) vs Spain (-0.0096). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
Spain is rated 2165 vs France's 2081 (gap: 84). That's a noticeable gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Spain to create 1.23 expected goals vs France's 0.92. More and better chances projected.
Similar star-player quality in both squads.
France's starters play together at club level more often (0.052 cohesion) than Spain's (0.018). More shared understanding on the pitch.
🌍Match Conditions
Similar travel distances for both teams.
France had 5 days since their last match vs Spain's 4. Extra recovery time for fresher legs.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 1–1 as the most likely scoreline (14.0%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how France v Spain plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
Every forecast graded against the real result, scored on 987 matches since 2014. See the scorecard.
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Latest news & match context
- France vs. Spain, 2026 World Cup semifinals: Match thread and discussion · Stars and Stripes FC · 14 Jul
- World Cup Watch Thread: Semi Finals | France vs Spain · Royal Blue Mersey · 14 Jul
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- What color jerseys are France and Spain wearing today? World Cup kit reveal · Yahoo Sports Australia · 14 Jul
- How and where to watch Spain vs. France 2026 World Cup match: TV channel, streaming options · The New York Times · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Semi-final · Match 1
- Date:
- 14 Jul
- Venue:
- AT&T Stadium, Dallas