Round of 16 · Match 4
MexicovsEngland
2026-07-05·18:00 local·Estadio Azteca · Mexico CityPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
England are dominant at 62% vs Mexico's 11%. Quality, form, and model estimates all point the same way. An upset here would be a major story.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates England at 60% to win vs Mexico at 18%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates England at 56% to win vs Mexico at 16%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates England at 56% to win vs Mexico at 16%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates England at 62% to win vs Mexico at 11%.
All 3 models agree: England is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
England collected 16 points (5W 1D 0L) vs Mexico's 12 (4W 0D 1L). A stronger tournament record.
Similar attacking output: Mexico 2.0 goals/match, England 2.17.
Mexico conceded just 0.6 goals/match vs England's 1.0. Tighter at the back.
Similar goal difference: Mexico +7, England +7.
📈Momentum
Mexico's rating rose +39.7 during the tournament while England's moved +33.4. The tournament has been kinder to Mexico.
Mexico's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0039) vs England (-0.0068). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
England is rated 2020 vs Mexico's 1860 (gap: 160). That's a significant gap in historical team strength.
The model expects England to create 1.24 expected goals vs Mexico's 0.55. More and better chances projected.
England's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.26) than Mexico's (0.14). More star power in key positions.
England's starters play together at club level more often (0.049 cohesion) than Mexico's (0.000). More shared understanding on the pitch.
🌍Match Conditions
Mexico traveled 14km vs England's 8,843km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Mexico face a 0h timezone shift vs England's 7h. Less jet lag disruption.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 0–1 as the most likely scoreline (20.0%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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See exactly how Mexico v England plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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Latest news & match context
- France v Spain - who would England rather face in the World Cup final? · Daily Mirror — Football · 14 Jul
- England captain Harry Kane hits out at ITV interviewer Gabriel Clarke 'trying to create division' between Thomas Tuchel and Jude Bellingham with his questioning at the World Cup · Daily Mail — Football · 14 Jul
- England World Cup semi-final and final? A reminder of where and when! · Sky Sports — Football · 14 Jul
- England vs. Argentina ticket prices: How much do World Cup semifinal tickets cost? · USA Today · 14 Jul
- World Cup 2026: American Ismail Elfath to referee England v Argentina · BBC · 14 Jul
- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 4
- Date:
- 5 Jul
- Venue:
- Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Altitude (2,240 m) and a 18°C kickoff modestly suppresses expected scoring at this venue.
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
- 2.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
1 squad member across the two sides is a fitness watch item — unlock the full availability breakdown and what it means for the forecast with a Pass.