Round of 16 · Match 2
CanadavsMorocco
2026-07-04·12:00 local·NRG Stadium · HoustonPredictions finalised
Match signals
Factors that favour each side, from statistical models to group stage form and match conditions. Longer bars = stronger advantage.
Morocco are strong favourites at 54% vs Canada's 16%. Most signals point the same way. Canada will need to outperform their rating.
📊What the Models Say
Rates teams by a single strength number updated after every match. Simpler but fast to react. It rates Morocco at 54% to win vs Canada at 24%.
Simulates the goal-scoring process using attack and defence strength. The heaviest-weighted model. It rates Morocco at 50% to win vs Canada at 18%.
Groups teams by confederation to share information. Helps for teams with fewer matches. It rates Morocco at 48% to win vs Canada at 20%.
The published probability after calibration and adjustments. This is what the model says. It rates Morocco at 54% to win vs Canada at 16%.
All 3 models agree: Morocco is favoured. When models agree, the signal is stronger.
⚽Tournament Form
Morocco collected 11 points (3W 2D 1L) vs Canada's 7 (2W 1D 2L). A stronger tournament record.
Similar attacking output: Canada 1.8 goals/match, Morocco 1.67.
Similar defensive records: Canada 1.2, Morocco 1.0 goals conceded per match.
Morocco's goal difference of +4 is better than Canada's +3. They outperformed opponents by more.
📈Momentum
Morocco's rating rose +44.8 during the tournament while Canada's moved -24.6. The tournament has been kinder to Morocco.
Canada's players improved their form ratings during the tournament (+0.0020) vs Morocco (+0.0000). Players trending upward.
🏆Team Quality
Morocco is rated 1822 vs Canada's 1784 (gap: 38). That's a noticeable gap in historical team strength.
The model expects Morocco to create 1.11 expected goals vs Canada's 0.56. More and better chances projected.
Morocco's top 3 starters are harder to replace (avg VORP 0.67) than Canada's (0.38). More star power in key positions.
Similar levels of squad familiarity from club football.
🌍Match Conditions
Canada traveled 3,192km vs Morocco's 8,182km. A shorter journey means less fatigue.
Canada face a 1h timezone shift vs Morocco's 6h. Less jet lag disruption.
17 signals across 5 categories. Signal strength reflects how large the gap is between the two teams on each factor. Signals are descriptive, not prescriptive.
Match-outcome probability
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The model's full forecast for this match
The model rates 0–1 as the most likely scoreline (20.1%). The full distribution, scorer probabilities, and tactical breakdown are inside.
Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
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The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Canada or Morocco.
- Stage:
- Round of 16 · Match 2
- Date:
- 4 Jul
- Venue:
- NRG Stadium, Houston
a 28°C kickoff modestly suppresses expected scoring at this venue.
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
- 2.Rest differential: Canada have had 6 days since their previous match versus 4 for Morocco. Rest and recovery are not model inputs.
- 3.Elimination stakes: A one-off elimination tie. Motivation, risk appetite and game management under tournament pressure are not model inputs; the forecast rests on team strength and the style matchup.
1 squad member across the two sides is a fitness watch item — unlock the full availability breakdown and what it means for the forecast with a Pass.