Group L · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
England
4:2
Croatia

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

EnglandCroatia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
England1.362.80+1.43
Croatia0.750.71−0.04

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
22
10
Shots on target
11
5
Possession (%)
52%
48%
Corners
8
2
Fouls
10
12
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Croatia press high and force the tempo. England's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Croatia's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against England's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Croatia force errors high up, or will England play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Croatia press high (PPDA 20.4). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. The scoring threat is evenly split: Harry Kane (6.4%) and Ante Budimir (7.3%).

Off the pitch

Zlatko Dalić (9 years in charge of Croatia) vs Thomas Tuchel (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Ivan Perišić. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group L · Matchday 1
Date:
17 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

England

England: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtTino Livramento (defender) is carrying Knee injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.

Croatia

Croatia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
England (above the line)Croatia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 12' · H. KaneGoal, 36' · M. BaturinaGoal, 42' · H. KaneGoal, 45' · P. MusaGoal, 47' · J. BellinghamGoal, 85' · M. Rashford

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, England minus Croatia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

EnglandCroatia
  • Penalty scoredH. KaneH. Kane converts from the spot for England.12'
  • 36'GoalM. Baturina· P. SucicM. Baturina scores for Croatia.
  • GoalH. Kane· D. RiceH. Kane scores for England.42'
  • 45'+5GoalP. Musa· I. PerisicP. Musa scores for Croatia.
  • GoalJ. Bellingham· E. AndersonJ. Bellingham scores for England.47'
  • 58'SubstitutionL. Modric· M. KovacicCroatia change: M. Kovacic.
  • 66'SubstitutionL. Vuskovic· M. PasalicCroatia change: M. Pasalic.
  • 66'SubstitutionP. Musa· I. MatanovicCroatia change: I. Matanovic.
  • SubstitutionA. Gordon· M. RashfordEngland change: M. Rashford.72'
  • SubstitutionN. Madueke· B. SakaEngland change: B. Saka.72'
  • SubstitutionD. Rice· M. RogersEngland change: M. Rogers.72'
  • 78'SubstitutionM. Baturina· N. VlasicCroatia change: N. Vlasic.
  • 79'SubstitutionM. Pasalic· A. KramaricCroatia change: A. Kramaric.
  • SubstitutionJ. Bellingham· D. SpenceEngland change: D. Spence.80'
  • GoalM. Rashford· B. SakaM. Rashford scores for England.85'
  • SubstitutionJ. Stones· M. GuehiEngland change: M. Guehi.87'

Player involvement

England

H. Kane12' Penalty scored · 42' Goal
J. Bellingham47' Goal · 80' On
M. Rashford72' Off · 85' Goal
AD. Rice42' Assist · 72' On
AE. Anderson47' Assist
AB. Saka72' Off · 85' Assist

Croatia

M. Baturina36' Goal · 78' On
P. Musa45'+5 Goal · 66' On
AP. Sucic36' Assist
AI. Perisic45'+5 Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

England win
56.5%
Draw
27.0%
Croatia win
16.5%
England
1.36
expected
goals
Croatia
0.75

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.8%
  • 1–1
    13.1%
  • 0–0
    12.8%
  • 2–0
    11.3%
  • 2–1
    8.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.