Group L · Matchday 1

← Pronóstico previo al partido
Scheduled
England
–:–
Croatia

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Match-outcome probability

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CalibrationBacktested to a 0.572 Brier score across 987 out-of-sample major-tournament matches (2014–2024): lower is better, and a no-skill 1-in-3 guess scores 0.667. In plain terms, outcomes the model rated 70% likely happened about 70% of the time. Live scoring begins 2026-06-11. See the scoreboard →

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group L · Matchday 1

Both England and Croatia enter this fixture with several squad members listed as doubtful; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.

La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.

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The model's full forecast for this match

Match-outcome probabilities, the most likely scorelines, scorer probabilities, and the in-match paths, all from one Dixon-Coles fit. The Standard Pass unlocks them for this match and all 104.

Scoreline distribution

Half-time / full-time

Four models compared

Most likely scorers

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See exactly how England v Croatia plays out

The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.

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Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.