Group L · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
England
4:2
Croatia

O confronto mais forte do dia pelo ranking FIFA combinado é grátis para todos: previsão completa e tracker ao vivo completo. Os demais jogos exigem um Standard Pass. Ver o Pass

Live descriptive stats

EnglandCroatia
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
England1.362.80+1.43
Croatia0.750.71−0.04

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
22
10
Shots on target
11
5
Possession (%)
52%
48%
Corners
8
2
Fouls
10
12
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Croatia press high and force the tempo. England's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Croatia's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against England's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Croatia force errors high up, or will England play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Croatia press high (PPDA 20.4). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. The scoring threat is evenly split: Harry Kane (6.4%) and Ante Budimir (7.3%).

Off the pitch

Zlatko Dalić (9 years in charge of Croatia) vs Thomas Tuchel (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Ivan Perišić. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news
Match conditions
Stage:
Group L · Matchday 1
Date:
17 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

England

England: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtTino Livramento (defender) is carrying Knee injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.

Croatia

Croatia come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

Ao vivoEstatísticas descritivas e a probabilidade de vitória ao vivo (com atraso) · atualiza a cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
England (above the line)Croatia (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 12' · H. KaneGoal, 36' · M. BaturinaGoal, 42' · H. KaneGoal, 45' · P. MusaGoal, 47' · J. BellinghamGoal, 85' · M. Rashford

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, England minus Croatia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

EnglandCroatia
  • Penalty scoredH. KaneH. Kane converts from the spot for England.12'
  • 36'GoalM. Baturina· P. SucicM. Baturina scores for Croatia.
  • GoalH. Kane· D. RiceH. Kane scores for England.42'
  • 45'+5GoalP. Musa· I. PerisicP. Musa scores for Croatia.
  • GoalJ. Bellingham· E. AndersonJ. Bellingham scores for England.47'
  • 58'SubstitutionL. Modric· M. KovacicCroatia change: M. Kovacic.
  • 66'SubstitutionL. Vuskovic· M. PasalicCroatia change: M. Pasalic.
  • 66'SubstitutionP. Musa· I. MatanovicCroatia change: I. Matanovic.
  • SubstitutionA. Gordon· M. RashfordEngland change: M. Rashford.72'
  • SubstitutionN. Madueke· B. SakaEngland change: B. Saka.72'
  • SubstitutionD. Rice· M. RogersEngland change: M. Rogers.72'
  • 78'SubstitutionM. Baturina· N. VlasicCroatia change: N. Vlasic.
  • 79'SubstitutionM. Pasalic· A. KramaricCroatia change: A. Kramaric.
  • SubstitutionJ. Bellingham· D. SpenceEngland change: D. Spence.80'
  • GoalM. Rashford· B. SakaM. Rashford scores for England.85'
  • SubstitutionJ. Stones· M. GuehiEngland change: M. Guehi.87'

Player involvement

England

H. Kane12' Penalty scored · 42' Goal
J. Bellingham47' Goal · 80' On
M. Rashford72' Off · 85' Goal
AD. Rice42' Assist · 72' On
AE. Anderson47' Assist
AB. Saka72' Off · 85' Assist

Croatia

M. Baturina36' Goal · 78' On
P. Musa45'+5 Goal · 66' On
AP. Sucic36' Assist
AI. Perisic45'+5 Assist
Modelo pré-jogoCongelado antes do início

Pre-match forecast

England win
56.7%
Draw
27.0%
Croatia win
16.3%
England
1.36
expected
goals
Croatia
0.75

A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–0
    15.8%
  • 1–1
    13.1%
  • 0–0
    12.8%
  • 2–0
    11.3%
  • 2–1
    8.4%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Como funciona a probabilidade ao vivo. A previsão pré-jogo publicada é congelada no fechamento das escalações (T-1h) e não muda após o início; a revisão pós-jogo avalia esse número congelado frente ao resultado. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo mostrada durante a partida é o mesmo modelo, relido conforme o placar e o tempo restante. Atualiza mais ou menos uma vez por minuto, está sempre com atraso e é um número descritivo de pesquisa, não um produto de jogos nem um preço de qualquer tipo. Veja /docs/methodology/ para o enquadramento completo.