Group L · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Croatia press high and force the tempo. England's balanced setup needs to absorb that pressure early and find the right moments to play forward. Croatia's aggressive press (PPDA 20.4) against England's deeper build-up (PPDA 23.5) creates a clear territory question: can Croatia force errors high up, or will England play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Croatia press high (PPDA 20.4). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. The scoring threat is evenly split: Harry Kane (6.4%) and Ante Budimir (7.3%).
Off the pitch
Zlatko Dalić (9 years in charge of Croatia) vs Thomas Tuchel (1 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Ivan Perišić. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
- 'Cowardly' Thomas Tuchel blasted for 'coaching catastrophe' in England's World Cup capitulation: Football legends lead outrage at Three Lions' manager's tactics after heartbreaking exit to Argentina · Daily Mail — Football · 16 Jul
- Jude Bellingham slaps Argentina star after England exit World Cup · The Independent — Football · 16 Jul
- World Cup 2026: Tuchel latest after England exit; Argentina players criticised for banner – live · The Guardian — Football · 16 Jul
- Gary Lineker jokes England boss Thomas Tuchel is a ‘German spy’ following World Cup defeat · The Independent — Football · 16 Jul
- 'It's the middle of the goal!': Jude Bellingham left fuming with Jordan Pickford for Argentina's equaliser in World Cup nightmare - as Lionel Messi discovers England star's penalty 'cheat sheet' · Daily Mail — Football · 16 Jul
- Stage:
- Group L · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 17 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
England
England: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtTino Livramento (defender) is carrying Knee injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
Croatia
Croatia come in at close to full strength.
Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, England minus Croatia: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Penalty scoredH. KaneH. Kane converts from the spot for England.12'
- 36'GoalM. Baturina· P. SucicM. Baturina scores for Croatia.
- GoalH. Kane· D. RiceH. Kane scores for England.42'
- 45'+5GoalP. Musa· I. PerisicP. Musa scores for Croatia.
- GoalJ. Bellingham· E. AndersonJ. Bellingham scores for England.47'
- 58'SubstitutionL. Modric· M. KovacicCroatia change: M. Kovacic.
- 66'SubstitutionL. Vuskovic· M. PasalicCroatia change: M. Pasalic.
- 66'SubstitutionP. Musa· I. MatanovicCroatia change: I. Matanovic.
- SubstitutionA. Gordon· M. RashfordEngland change: M. Rashford.72'
- SubstitutionN. Madueke· B. SakaEngland change: B. Saka.72'
- SubstitutionD. Rice· M. RogersEngland change: M. Rogers.72'
- 78'SubstitutionM. Baturina· N. VlasicCroatia change: N. Vlasic.
- 79'SubstitutionM. Pasalic· A. KramaricCroatia change: A. Kramaric.
- SubstitutionJ. Bellingham· D. SpenceEngland change: D. Spence.80'
- GoalM. Rashford· B. SakaM. Rashford scores for England.85'
- SubstitutionJ. Stones· M. GuehiEngland change: M. Guehi.87'
Player involvement
England
Croatia
Pre-match forecast
goals
Die veröffentlichte Wahrscheinlichkeit für dieses Spiel wird bei der Aufstellungsbestätigung (≈1 Stunde vor Anpfiff) festgeschrieben und ändert sich danach nicht mehr. An dieser Zahl wird der Rückblick nach Abpfiff gemessen. Die Live-Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Live-Bereich ist eine separate, verzögerte, beschreibende Schätzung; sie ersetzt die veröffentlichte Prognose nicht.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–18.4%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.