Group D · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
United States
4:1
Paraguay

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

United StatesParaguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States0.971.27+0.30
Paraguay0.920.51−0.41

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
9
Shots on target
6
1
Possession (%)
65%
35%
Corners
3
1
Fouls
13
17
Yellow cards
1
5
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 7.6%).

Off the pitch

Paraguay travel 8,987km, 3x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Paraguay

Paraguay come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Paraguay's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Paraguay's projected XI looks intact.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Paraguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · D. BobadillaGoal, 31' · F. BalogunGoal, 45' · F. BalogunGoal, 73' · MauricioGoal, 90' · G. Reyna

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Paraguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesParaguay
  • Own goalD. BobadillaD. Bobadilla turns it into their own net — credited to Paraguay.7'
  • 10'Yellow cardJ. Caceres· TrippingJ. Caceres is booked — Tripping.
  • VAR reviewF. BalogunVAR review under way.28'
  • GoalF. Balogun· C. PulisicF. Balogun scores for United States.31'
  • GoalF. Balogun· M. TillmanF. Balogun scores for United States.45'+5
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Bobadilla· MauricioParaguay change: Mauricio.
  • SubstitutionC. Pulisic· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.46'
  • 53'Yellow cardM. Almiron· DivingM. Almiron is booked — Diving.
  • Yellow cardT. Adams· RoughingT. Adams is booked — Roughing.59'
  • 62'SubstitutionA. Sanabria· A. ArceParaguay change: A. Arce.
  • SubstitutionS. Dest· T. WeahUnited States change: T. Weah.72'
  • SubstitutionF. Balogun· R. PepiUnited States change: R. Pepi.72'
  • 73'GoalMauricio· J. EncisoMauricio scores for Paraguay.
  • 79'Yellow cardD. Gomez· HoldingD. Gomez is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionM. Almiron· R. SosaParaguay change: R. Sosa.
  • 79'SubstitutionJ. Caceres· G. VelazquezParaguay change: G. Velazquez.
  • 80'SubstitutionD. Gomez· KakuParaguay change: Kaku.
  • SubstitutionM. Tillman· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.82'
  • 88'Yellow cardA. Arce· RoughingA. Arce is booked — Roughing.
  • 90'+3Yellow cardJ. Alonso· HoldingJ. Alonso is booked — Holding.
  • GoalG. Reyna· A. FreemanG. Reyna scores for United States.90'+8

Player involvement

United States

F. Balogun31' Goal · 45'+5 Goal · 72' On
G. Reyna82' Off · 90'+8 Goal
AC. Pulisic31' Assist · 46' On
AM. Tillman45'+5 Assist · 82' On
AA. Freeman90'+8 Assist
T. Adams59' Yellow card

Paraguay

Mauricio46' Off · 73' Goal
AJ. Enciso73' Assist
J. Caceres10' Yellow card · 79' On
M. Almiron53' Yellow card · 79' On
A. Arce62' Off · 88' Yellow card
D. Gomez79' Yellow card · 80' On
J. Alonso90'+3 Yellow card
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

United States win
33.5%
Draw
31.3%
Paraguay win
35.2%
United States
0.97
expected
goals
Paraguay
0.92

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    16.0%
  • 1–1
    14.3%
  • 1–0
    13.8%
  • 0–1
    13.1%
  • 2–0
    7.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

4 – 1
United States win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • United States win· realised
    32.3%
  • Draw
    29.4%
  • Paraguay win
    38.3%
Brier score
0.693
Log loss
1.132
xG (final / predicted)
1.27 / 0.90 · United States
0.51 / 0.93 · Paraguay
P(realised outcome)
32.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.