Group D · Matchday 1

← Pre-match forecast
Scheduled
United States
–:–
Paraguay

Live score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.

Frozen pre-match probability

Standard Pass

The model probability at lineup confirmation (T-1h). Frozen — does not re-price during the match.

Live descriptive stats

Standard Pass

Accumulated xG, shots, shots on target, possession share, corners, fouls, and cards. Describes the match as played.

Event timeline

Standard Pass

Goals, cards, substitutions, and VAR reviews as they happen.

Post-match calibration

Standard Pass

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome with Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Publishes at full time.

Standard Pass

Unlock the live tracker for every match

The Standard Pass unlocks the frozen pre-match probability, live descriptive stats, and the post-match calibration recap for every fixture.

Get the Pass — $15 →

24h self-service refund·No subscription, no auto-renewal·Access through 31 Dec 2026. See refund policy.

Why no live probability re-price. Live in-play probability updates are functionally indistinguishable from in-play odds and would shift this surface out of research / data publication territory. The model's published forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and stays frozen through full time. The post-match recap publishes one calibration check — pre- match P vs realised outcome — so the published number is accountable without re-pricing during play. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.