Group D · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
United States
4:1
Paraguay

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Live descriptive stats

United StatesParaguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States0.971.27+0.30
Paraguay0.920.51−0.41

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
9
Shots on target
6
1
Possession (%)
65%
35%
Corners
3
1
Fouls
13
17
Yellow cards
1
5
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 7.6%).

Off the pitch

Paraguay travel 8,987km, 3x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Paraguay

Paraguay come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Paraguay's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Paraguay's projected XI looks intact.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

实时描述性数据与延迟的实时获胜概率 · 约每30秒更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Paraguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · D. BobadillaGoal, 31' · F. BalogunGoal, 45' · F. BalogunGoal, 73' · MauricioGoal, 90' · G. Reyna

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Paraguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesParaguay
  • Own goalD. BobadillaD. Bobadilla turns it into their own net — credited to Paraguay.7'
  • 10'Yellow cardJ. Caceres· TrippingJ. Caceres is booked — Tripping.
  • VAR reviewF. BalogunVAR review under way.28'
  • GoalF. Balogun· C. PulisicF. Balogun scores for United States.31'
  • GoalF. Balogun· M. TillmanF. Balogun scores for United States.45'+5
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Bobadilla· MauricioParaguay change: Mauricio.
  • SubstitutionC. Pulisic· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.46'
  • 53'Yellow cardM. Almiron· DivingM. Almiron is booked — Diving.
  • Yellow cardT. Adams· RoughingT. Adams is booked — Roughing.59'
  • 62'SubstitutionA. Sanabria· A. ArceParaguay change: A. Arce.
  • SubstitutionS. Dest· T. WeahUnited States change: T. Weah.72'
  • SubstitutionF. Balogun· R. PepiUnited States change: R. Pepi.72'
  • 73'GoalMauricio· J. EncisoMauricio scores for Paraguay.
  • 79'Yellow cardD. Gomez· HoldingD. Gomez is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionM. Almiron· R. SosaParaguay change: R. Sosa.
  • 79'SubstitutionJ. Caceres· G. VelazquezParaguay change: G. Velazquez.
  • 80'SubstitutionD. Gomez· KakuParaguay change: Kaku.
  • SubstitutionM. Tillman· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.82'
  • 88'Yellow cardA. Arce· RoughingA. Arce is booked — Roughing.
  • 90'+3Yellow cardJ. Alonso· HoldingJ. Alonso is booked — Holding.
  • GoalG. Reyna· A. FreemanG. Reyna scores for United States.90'+8

Player involvement

United States

F. Balogun31' Goal · 45'+5 Goal · 72' On
G. Reyna82' Off · 90'+8 Goal
AC. Pulisic31' Assist · 46' On
AM. Tillman45'+5 Assist · 82' On
AA. Freeman90'+8 Assist
T. Adams59' Yellow card

Paraguay

Mauricio46' Off · 73' Goal
AJ. Enciso73' Assist
J. Caceres10' Yellow card · 79' On
M. Almiron53' Yellow card · 79' On
A. Arce62' Off · 88' Yellow card
D. Gomez79' Yellow card · 80' On
J. Alonso90'+3 Yellow card
赛前模型开球前锁定

Pre-match forecast

United States win
33.7%
Draw
31.2%
Paraguay win
35.1%
United States
0.97
expected
goals
Paraguay
0.92

本场比赛的已发布概率在首发名单确认时（开球前约1小时）固定，此后不再更新。赛后回顾问责的就是这个数字。Live 区域中的实时获胜概率是另一个有延迟的描述性估计，不会取代已发布的预测。

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    16.0%
  • 1–1
    14.3%
  • 1–0
    13.8%
  • 0–1
    13.1%
  • 2–0
    7.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

4 – 1
United States win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • United States win· realised
    32.3%
  • Draw
    29.4%
  • Paraguay win
    38.3%
Brier score
0.693
Log loss
1.132
xG (final / predicted)
1.27 / 0.90 · United States
0.51 / 0.93 · Paraguay
P(realised outcome)
32.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

完整预测与结果回顾 →

实时概率如何运作。 已发布的赛前预测在首发名单锁定（T-1h）时冻结，开球后不再变化；赛后回顾会用结果检验这个被冻结的数字。比赛中显示的实时获胜概率，是同一个模型按当前比分和剩余时间重新读取的结果。它大约每分钟刷新一次，始终有延迟，是描述性的研究数字，不是博弈类产品，也不是任何形式的价格。完整框架见 /docs/methodology/ 。