Group D · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
United States
4:1
Paraguay

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Live descriptive stats

United StatesParaguay
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
United States0.971.27+0.30
Paraguay0.920.51−0.41

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
16
9
Shots on target
6
1
Possession (%)
65%
35%
Corners
3
1
Fouls
13
17
Yellow cards
1
5
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 7.6%).

Off the pitch

Paraguay travel 8,987km, 3x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group D · Matchday 1
Date:
12 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

United States

United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.

Paraguay

Paraguay come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Availability runs in Paraguay's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Paraguay's projected XI looks intact.

The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

En vivoEstadísticas descriptivas y la probabilidad de victoria en vivo (con retraso) · se actualiza cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
United States (above the line)Paraguay (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · D. BobadillaGoal, 31' · F. BalogunGoal, 45' · F. BalogunGoal, 73' · MauricioGoal, 90' · G. Reyna

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Paraguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

United StatesParaguay
  • Own goalD. BobadillaD. Bobadilla turns it into their own net — credited to Paraguay.7'
  • 10'Yellow cardJ. Caceres· TrippingJ. Caceres is booked — Tripping.
  • VAR reviewF. BalogunVAR review under way.28'
  • GoalF. Balogun· C. PulisicF. Balogun scores for United States.31'
  • GoalF. Balogun· M. TillmanF. Balogun scores for United States.45'+5
  • 46'SubstitutionD. Bobadilla· MauricioParaguay change: Mauricio.
  • SubstitutionC. Pulisic· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.46'
  • 53'Yellow cardM. Almiron· DivingM. Almiron is booked — Diving.
  • Yellow cardT. Adams· RoughingT. Adams is booked — Roughing.59'
  • 62'SubstitutionA. Sanabria· A. ArceParaguay change: A. Arce.
  • SubstitutionS. Dest· T. WeahUnited States change: T. Weah.72'
  • SubstitutionF. Balogun· R. PepiUnited States change: R. Pepi.72'
  • 73'GoalMauricio· J. EncisoMauricio scores for Paraguay.
  • 79'Yellow cardD. Gomez· HoldingD. Gomez is booked — Holding.
  • 79'SubstitutionM. Almiron· R. SosaParaguay change: R. Sosa.
  • 79'SubstitutionJ. Caceres· G. VelazquezParaguay change: G. Velazquez.
  • 80'SubstitutionD. Gomez· KakuParaguay change: Kaku.
  • SubstitutionM. Tillman· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.82'
  • 88'Yellow cardA. Arce· RoughingA. Arce is booked — Roughing.
  • 90'+3Yellow cardJ. Alonso· HoldingJ. Alonso is booked — Holding.
  • GoalG. Reyna· A. FreemanG. Reyna scores for United States.90'+8

Player involvement

United States

F. Balogun31' Goal · 45'+5 Goal · 72' On
G. Reyna82' Off · 90'+8 Goal
AC. Pulisic31' Assist · 46' On
AM. Tillman45'+5 Assist · 82' On
AA. Freeman90'+8 Assist
T. Adams59' Yellow card

Paraguay

Mauricio46' Off · 73' Goal
AJ. Enciso73' Assist
J. Caceres10' Yellow card · 79' On
M. Almiron53' Yellow card · 79' On
A. Arce62' Off · 88' Yellow card
D. Gomez79' Yellow card · 80' On
J. Alonso90'+3 Yellow card
Modelo previo al partidoCongelado antes del saque inicial

Pre-match forecast

United States win
33.7%
Draw
31.2%
Paraguay win
35.1%
United States
0.97
expected
goals
Paraguay
0.92

La probabilidad publicada para este partido queda fijada al confirmarse las alineaciones (≈1 hora antes del inicio) y no se actualiza después. Es el número al que el repaso posterior pide cuentas. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo de la sección Live es una estimación separada, con retraso y descriptiva; no sustituye al pronóstico publicado.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–0
    16.0%
  • 1–1
    14.3%
  • 1–0
    13.8%
  • 0–1
    13.1%
  • 2–0
    7.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

4 – 1
United States win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • United States win· realised
    32.3%
  • Draw
    29.4%
  • Paraguay win
    38.3%
Brier score
0.693
Log loss
1.132
xG (final / predicted)
1.27 / 0.90 · United States
0.51 / 0.93 · Paraguay
P(realised outcome)
32.3%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Resumen completo de pronóstico frente a resultado →

Cómo funciona la probabilidad en vivo. El pronóstico previo publicado se congela en el cierre de alineaciones (T-1h) y no cambia tras el inicio; el repaso posterior evalúa ese número congelado frente al resultado. La probabilidad de victoria en vivo que se muestra durante el juego es el mismo modelo, releído según el marcador y el tiempo restante. Se actualiza más o menos una vez por minuto, siempre con retraso, y es una cifra descriptiva de investigación, no un producto de juego ni un precio de ningún tipo. Consulta /docs/methodology/ para el marco completo.