Group D · Matchday 1
← Maç öncesi tahminLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- United States win32.3%
- Draw29.4%
- Paraguay win38.3%
Analysis
Paraguay carry a slight probability advantage at 38.3% versus 32.2% for United States (draw 29.4%). A 112-point Elo gap gives Paraguay a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 73.7% for United States and 66.0% for Paraguay.
Tactical matchup
Both sides share a balanced identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Paraguay press significantly higher (PPDA 14.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
The individual battle features Folarin Balogun (P(scores) 13.3%) against Antonio Sanabria (7.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Paraguay play a more direct game while United States build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Paraguay face a 8,987km journey to the venue versus United States's 2,817km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. Injury watch: United States's Christian Pulisic is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Tim Ream, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 1
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Maç sonu kalibrasyonu ücretsizdir. Bu maç bittiğinde, tahmin ve sonuç özeti (maç öncesi olasılık ile gerçekleşen sonuç karşılaştırması, Brier score, log loss ve gerçekleşen xG ile tahmini xG) şu sayfada yayımlanır: özet sayfası, herkes için açık.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how United States v Paraguay plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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