Group D · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Both sides run a balanced system, so this becomes a test of who executes the same ideas better on the day. Paraguay's aggressive press (PPDA 14.2) against United States's deeper build-up (PPDA 27.7) creates a clear territory question: can Paraguay force errors high up, or will United States play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Folarin Balogun carries the marginally higher scoring probability (10.7% vs 7.6%).
Off the pitch
Paraguay travel 8,987km, 3x United States's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Tim Ream. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 12 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads, 1 of them projected starters. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
United States
United States: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtChristian Pulisic, the first-choice forward, is recovering from Calf injury and is a fitness watch item; if unavailable the projected XI shifts.
Paraguay
Paraguay come in at close to full strength.
Availability runs in Paraguay's favour here: United States are managing a fitness concern over Christian Pulisic, while Paraguay's projected XI looks intact.
The model's style-matchup analysis nudges the forecast −0.1pp toward a draw, versus the baseline team-strength prior.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, United States minus Paraguay: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- Own goalD. BobadillaD. Bobadilla turns it into their own net — credited to Paraguay.7'
- 10'Yellow cardJ. Caceres· TrippingJ. Caceres is booked — Tripping.
- VAR reviewF. BalogunVAR review under way.28'
- GoalF. Balogun· C. PulisicF. Balogun scores for United States.31'
- GoalF. Balogun· M. TillmanF. Balogun scores for United States.45'+5
- 46'SubstitutionD. Bobadilla· MauricioParaguay change: Mauricio.
- SubstitutionC. Pulisic· S. BerhalterUnited States change: S. Berhalter.46'
- 53'Yellow cardM. Almiron· DivingM. Almiron is booked — Diving.
- Yellow cardT. Adams· RoughingT. Adams is booked — Roughing.59'
- 62'SubstitutionA. Sanabria· A. ArceParaguay change: A. Arce.
- SubstitutionS. Dest· T. WeahUnited States change: T. Weah.72'
- SubstitutionF. Balogun· R. PepiUnited States change: R. Pepi.72'
- 73'GoalMauricio· J. EncisoMauricio scores for Paraguay.
- 79'Yellow cardD. Gomez· HoldingD. Gomez is booked — Holding.
- 79'SubstitutionM. Almiron· R. SosaParaguay change: R. Sosa.
- 79'SubstitutionJ. Caceres· G. VelazquezParaguay change: G. Velazquez.
- 80'SubstitutionD. Gomez· KakuParaguay change: Kaku.
- SubstitutionM. Tillman· G. ReynaUnited States change: G. Reyna.82'
- 88'Yellow cardA. Arce· RoughingA. Arce is booked — Roughing.
- 90'+3Yellow cardJ. Alonso· HoldingJ. Alonso is booked — Holding.
- GoalG. Reyna· A. FreemanG. Reyna scores for United States.90'+8
Player involvement
United States
Paraguay
Pre-match forecast
goals
A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–016.0%
- 1–114.3%
- 1–013.8%
- 0–113.1%
- 2–07.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- United States win· realised32.3%
- Draw29.4%
- Paraguay win38.3%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.