Group D · Matchday 1
← Previsione pre-partitaLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- United States win32.3%
- Draw29.4%
- Paraguay win38.3%
Analysis
Paraguay carry a slight probability advantage at 38.3% versus 32.2% for United States (draw 29.4%). A 112-point Elo gap gives Paraguay a measurable advantage, though the gap is narrow enough that a single result could close it. A Group D fixture with advance probabilities of 73.7% for United States and 66.0% for Paraguay.
Tactical matchup
Both sides share a balanced identity — expect a contest of execution within similar tactical frameworks. Paraguay press significantly higher (PPDA 14.2) — their ability to force turnovers in advanced positions will be a key tactical dynamic.
Key battlegrounds
The individual battle features Folarin Balogun (P(scores) 13.3%) against Antonio Sanabria (7.2%) — their impact could prove decisive. Paraguay play a more direct game while United States build more patiently — the tempo battle will shape whether this is an end-to-end contest or a methodical arm-wrestle.
Situational factors
Paraguay face a 8,987km journey to the venue versus United States's 2,817km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half. Injury watch: United States's Christian Pulisic is recovering — availability remains uncertain.
Match storyline
For Tim Ream, this may be among the final World Cup fixtures — experience and composure on the biggest stage.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for United States or Paraguay.
- Stage:
- Group D · Matchday 1
Both sides contend with multiple key player doubts ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibrazione post-partita è gratuita. Al termine di questa partita, il riepilogo previsione vs risultato (probabilità pre-partita vs esito reale, Brier score, log loss e xG finale vs previsto) viene pubblicato nella pagina riepilogo, aperta a tutti.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how United States v Paraguay plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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