Measured in public
23 Jun 2026
Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.
Day average: Strong read
- GradedLocked 10 Jun5 – 0
- Portugal · realised71.7%
- Draw20.4%
- Uzbekistan7.9%
VerdictNailed itPortugal 5–0 Uzbekistan was the outcome the model rated most likely (71.7% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.128, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Portugal9RonaldoSTScored multiple goals, demonstrating clinical finishing and leading the attack for Portugal.Uzbekistan3NemotovGKConceded multiple goals and scored an unfortunate own goal under immense pressure from the opposition. - 0 – 1
- DR Congo7.1%
- Draw22.0%
- Colombia · realised70.9%
VerdictNailed itDR Congo 0–1 Colombia was the outcome the model rated most likely (70.9% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.138, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
DR Congo8WissaLWScored the vital equalizing goal for Congo DR with a composed and clinical finish.8Congo DR GoalkeeperGKMade several crucial saves in the second half, including from Cancelo and Bruno Fernandes, to secure the draw for Congo DR.7BakambuSTCreated numerous scoring opportunities and showed good movement, but was ultimately unlucky not to convert.Colombia8João NevesCMScored the opening goal for Portugal with excellent positioning and a well-placed header.7CanceloLBShowed good attacking intent from left-back, forcing a save from the opposition goalkeeper.7Bruno FernandesAMUnleashed a powerful shot from distance that tested the goalkeeper, showcasing his offensive threat. - 0 – 0
- England79.2%
- Draw · realised16.8%
- Ghana4.0%
VerdictSurprise resultEngland 0–0 Ghana was an outcome the model rated at 16.8% (16.8% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 1.322, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
England9Harry KaneSTKane was England's primary goal threat, scoring two crucial goals including a penalty and a header, demonstrating clinical finishing and leadership.8Jude BellinghamCMBellingham scored a crucial goal late in the game, demonstrating his attacking presence and ability to make incisive runs into dangerous areas.8Marcus RashfordLWRashford scored England's fourth goal with a decisive individual effort after a skillful run, sealing the victory for his team.Ghana8BaturinaAMBaturina scored a crucial equalizer for Croatia with a powerful and accurate shot, demonstrating his offensive capabilities.8MusaSTMusa scored Croatia's second equalizer by reacting quickly to a rebound, showcasing his anticipation and clinical finishing in the box.8LivakovicGKLivakovic made several crucial saves, including a penalty stop and a remarkable double save, which kept Croatia in the match despite the final score. Croatia 1–0 Panama was the outcome the model rated most likely (69.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.145, better than the 0.667 no-skill mark.
Match ratings
Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.
Croatia7DigneLBProvided a solid defensive performance, making crucial tackles and supporting the attack from the left flank.7BrahimRWAn influential winger who used his good dribbling skills to create attacking opportunities and pose a threat to the opponent's defense.6EndrickSTAn active forward who contributed to both offensive pressure and defensive recovery, including creating a shooting opportunity.Panama8Jacobo RamónCBA strong defensive presence who made vital interventions, including key tackles inside the box, to protect his team's goal.7BeckhamCMA diligent midfielder who contributed significantly to rellll's defensive efforts with several effective tackles.
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