Forecast · What-if scenarios
What if X were Y? Per-team sensitivity
Snapshot · 2026-05-21Model 1.0.0For each of the 48 WC 2026 nations we re-run the bracket Monte Carlo under a small set of plausible perturbations of the model inputs, a stronger or weaker group draw, a small bump or dock to the team's rating, and resetting penalty-shootout conversion to the population average. The deltas below show how much each perturbation shifts the team's published tournament-winner probability. Methodology and the full scenario list are documented in /docs/methodology/.
48 teams · 2,000 sims/scenario · largest single-perturbation shift: 11.0pp
Top 10 most-sensitive teams
Most sensitive: Spain (largest single-scenario shift 11.0pp)
Per-team scenario deltas for 48 nations. Each scenario perturbs a single model input (group strength, team rating, penalty-shootout proficiency) and reports the resulting shift in the team's tournament-winner probability. The Standard Pass unlocks the full table and per-scenario breakdown.
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How to read the table
The model's tournament-winner probability for each team comes from a 100,000-simulation Monte Carlo bracket re-run. For each team, this page asks five small "what if" questions of the form "if input X were value Y, what would the probability be?" The arrow → shows the move from baseline to perturbed probability; the delta in parentheses is the shift in percentage points. These are descriptive sensitivities, not predictions of what will happen.
Compliance: this surface is research output. No external probability source is referenced, and no scenario is framed as advice for any audience.