Group E · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Curaçao
0:2
Ivory Coast

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

CuraçaoIvory Coast
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Curaçao0.480.00−0.48
Ivory Coast2.020.00−2.02

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
7
Shots on target
2
3
Possession (%)
37%
63%
Corners
4
6
Fouls
11
6
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Ivory Coast will dominate the ball. Whether Curaçao can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Ivory Coast's possession converts to chances. Ivory Coast will expect to hold 58% possession. Curaçao need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Ivory Coast's possession game (58% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. The scoring threat is evenly split: Jürgen Locadia (8.7%) and Franck Kessié (8.4%).

Off the pitch

Ivory Coast travel 7,736km, 2x Curaçao's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Curaçao just 12.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Curaçao or Ivory Coast.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Curaçao

Curaçao come in at close to full strength.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Curaçao and Ivory Coast both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Curaçao (above the line)Ivory Coast (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · Nicolas PépéGoal, 64' · Nicolas Pépé

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Curaçao minus Ivory Coast: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CuraçaoIvory Coast
  • 7'GoalNicolas Pépé· Yan DiomandeNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
  • 35'Yellow cardNicolas Pépé· FoulNicolas Pépé is booked — Foul.
  • 45'SubstitutionAmad Diallo· Christ Inao OulaïIvory Coast change: Christ Inao Oulaï.
  • SubstitutionLivano Comenencia· Jeremy AntonisseCuraçao change: Jeremy Antonisse.61'
  • 64'GoalNicolas Pépé· Ibrahim SangaréNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
  • 67'SubstitutionAnge-Yoan Bonny· Oumar DiakitéIvory Coast change: Oumar Diakité.
  • 67'SubstitutionNicolas Pépé· Sepe Elye WahiIvory Coast change: Sepe Elye Wahi.
  • 67'SubstitutionYan Diomande· Bazoumana TouréIvory Coast change: Bazoumana Touré.
  • Yellow cardJuninho Bacuna· FoulJuninho Bacuna is booked — Foul.75'
  • SubstitutionJurien Gaari· Gervane KastaneerCuraçao change: Gervane Kastaneer.77'
  • SubstitutionDeveron Fonville· Tyrese NoslinCuraçao change: Tyrese Noslin.77'
  • 77'SubstitutionFranck Kessié· Jean Michaël SeriIvory Coast change: Jean Michaël Seri.
  • Yellow cardGervane Kastaneer· FoulGervane Kastaneer is booked — Foul.83'
  • SubstitutionJoshua Brenet· Shurandy SamboCuraçao change: Shurandy Sambo.90'
  • SubstitutionJürgen Locadia· Brandley KuwasCuraçao change: Brandley Kuwas.90'

Player involvement

Curaçao

Juninho Bacuna75' Yellow card
Gervane Kastaneer77' Off · 83' Yellow card

Ivory Coast

Nicolas Pépé7' Goal · 35' Yellow card · 64' Goal · 67' On
AYan Diomande7' Assist · 67' On
AIbrahim Sangaré64' Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Curaçao win
3.8%
Draw
20.8%
Ivory Coast win
75.4%
Curaçao
0.48
expected
goals
Ivory Coast
2.02

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–2
    16.7%
  • 0–1
    16.1%
  • 0–3
    11.2%
  • 0–0
    8.7%
  • 1–1
    8.5%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

0 – 2
Ivory Coast win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Curaçao win
    14.5%
  • Draw
    25.1%
  • Ivory Coast win· realised
    60.4%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.504
xG (final / predicted)
0.00 / 0.49 · Curaçao
2.00 / 1.99 · Ivory Coast
P(realised outcome)
60.4%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.