Group E · Matchday 3
← Pronóstico previo al partidoLive score, descriptive in-match stats, and a post-match calibration recap appear here once the match kicks off.
Match-outcome probability
- Curaçao win12.4%
- Draw24.3%
- Ivory Coast win63.3%
Analysis
The model rates Ivory Coast as clear favourites at 63.3%, with Curaçao at 12.4% and the draw at 24.2%. The Elo gap is substantial at 240 points in Ivory Coast's favour, reflecting a clear strength differential in recent form. A Group E fixture with advance probabilities of 5.3% for Curaçao and 72.9% for Ivory Coast.
Tactical matchup
Curaçao (balanced) meet Ivory Coast (possession dominant) — contrasting tactical identities that should shape the contest. Ivory Coast typically dominate possession (58%) compared to Curaçao's 51% — the ball-control asymmetry could define this match.
Key battlegrounds
Ivory Coast need to control tempo through midfield — their possession-based approach depends on dictating rhythm. The individual battle features Jürgen Locadia (P(scores) 8.7%) against Franck Kessié (8.4%) — their impact could prove decisive.
Situational factors
Ivory Coast face a 7,736km journey to the venue versus Curaçao's 3,143km — acclimatisation and fatigue could factor into the second half.
Match storyline
At 12.4%, a Curaçao result would qualify as a genuine upset — the kind of group-stage surprise every World Cup produces.
Key numbers
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Curaçao or Ivory Coast.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 3
Both sides contend with a handful of attacking concerns ahead of this fixture; unlock the full breakdown with a Pass.
La calibración post-partido es gratuita. Cuando este partido termine, el resumen de pronóstico frente a resultado (probabilidad previa frente al resultado real, Brier score, log loss y xG final frente a predicho) se publicará en la página de resumen, abierta para todos.
Standard Pass
That's the headline. The full forecast goes deeper.
The same Dixon-Coles fit behind the probabilities above also produces the breakdowns below — for this match and all 104.
Scoreline distribution
Half-time / full-time
Four models compared
Most likely scorers
Standard Pass
See exactly how Curaçao v Ivory Coast plays out
The most likely scorelines, half-time and full-time paths, all four models side by side, the timing of the first goal, and which players are most likely to score — for this match and every one of the 104.
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