Group E · Matchday 3
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Ivory Coast will dominate the ball. Whether Curaçao can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Ivory Coast's possession converts to chances. Ivory Coast will expect to hold 58% possession. Curaçao need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.
What decides it
Ivory Coast's possession game (58% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. The scoring threat is evenly split: Jürgen Locadia (8.7%) and Franck Kessié (8.4%).
Off the pitch
Ivory Coast travel 7,736km, 2x Curaçao's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.
The angle
The model gives Curaçao just 12.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Curaçao or Ivory Coast.
- Stage:
- Group E · Matchday 3
- Date:
- 25 Jun
Curaçao
Curaçao come in at close to full strength.
Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.
Curaçao and Ivory Coast both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Curaçao minus Ivory Coast: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- 7'GoalNicolas Pépé· Yan DiomandeNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
- 35'Yellow cardNicolas Pépé· FoulNicolas Pépé is booked — Foul.
- 45'SubstitutionAmad Diallo· Christ Inao OulaïIvory Coast change: Christ Inao Oulaï.
- SubstitutionLivano Comenencia· Jeremy AntonisseCuraçao change: Jeremy Antonisse.61'
- 64'GoalNicolas Pépé· Ibrahim SangaréNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
- 67'SubstitutionAnge-Yoan Bonny· Oumar DiakitéIvory Coast change: Oumar Diakité.
- 67'SubstitutionNicolas Pépé· Sepe Elye WahiIvory Coast change: Sepe Elye Wahi.
- 67'SubstitutionYan Diomande· Bazoumana TouréIvory Coast change: Bazoumana Touré.
- Yellow cardJuninho Bacuna· FoulJuninho Bacuna is booked — Foul.75'
- SubstitutionJurien Gaari· Gervane KastaneerCuraçao change: Gervane Kastaneer.77'
- SubstitutionDeveron Fonville· Tyrese NoslinCuraçao change: Tyrese Noslin.77'
- 77'SubstitutionFranck Kessié· Jean Michaël SeriIvory Coast change: Jean Michaël Seri.
- Yellow cardGervane Kastaneer· FoulGervane Kastaneer is booked — Foul.83'
- SubstitutionJoshua Brenet· Shurandy SamboCuraçao change: Shurandy Sambo.90'
- SubstitutionJürgen Locadia· Brandley KuwasCuraçao change: Brandley Kuwas.90'
Player involvement
Curaçao
Ivory Coast
Pre-match forecast
goals
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Most likely scorelines
- 0–216.7%
- 0–116.1%
- 0–311.2%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–18.5%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Curaçao win14.5%
- Draw25.1%
- Ivory Coast win· realised60.4%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.