Group E · Matchday 3

Full-timeFT
Curaçao
0:2
Ivory Coast

O confronto mais forte do dia pelo ranking FIFA combinado é grátis para todos: previsão completa e tracker ao vivo completo. Os demais jogos exigem um Standard Pass. Ver o Pass

Live descriptive stats

CuraçaoIvory Coast
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Curaçao0.480.00−0.48
Ivory Coast2.020.00−2.02

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
11
7
Shots on target
2
3
Possession (%)
37%
63%
Corners
4
6
Fouls
11
6
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Ivory Coast will dominate the ball. Whether Curaçao can stay organised through long spells without it determines if Ivory Coast's possession converts to chances. Ivory Coast will expect to hold 58% possession. Curaçao need their shape to stay compact without the ball and be clinical when they win it back.

What decides it

Ivory Coast's possession game (58% avg) requires patience in the final third and quick ball recovery when they lose it. The scoring threat is evenly split: Jürgen Locadia (8.7%) and Franck Kessié (8.4%).

Off the pitch

Ivory Coast travel 7,736km, 2x Curaçao's journey. Second-half fatigue is a real factor at that differential.

The angle

The model gives Curaçao just 12.4% to win. Every World Cup produces group-stage upsets; the question is whether this fixture is one of them.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Curaçao or Ivory Coast.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group E · Matchday 3
Date:
25 Jun
Availability

Curaçao

Curaçao come in at close to full strength.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast come in at close to full strength.

What it means

Curaçao and Ivory Coast both come in at close to full strength, so the forecast rests on baseline team strength rather than late team-news swings.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

Ao vivoEstatísticas descritivas e a probabilidade de vitória ao vivo (com atraso) · atualiza a cada ~30 segundos

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Curaçao (above the line)Ivory Coast (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 7' · Nicolas PépéGoal, 64' · Nicolas Pépé

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Curaçao minus Ivory Coast: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

CuraçaoIvory Coast
  • 7'GoalNicolas Pépé· Yan DiomandeNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
  • 35'Yellow cardNicolas Pépé· FoulNicolas Pépé is booked — Foul.
  • 45'SubstitutionAmad Diallo· Christ Inao OulaïIvory Coast change: Christ Inao Oulaï.
  • SubstitutionLivano Comenencia· Jeremy AntonisseCuraçao change: Jeremy Antonisse.61'
  • 64'GoalNicolas Pépé· Ibrahim SangaréNicolas Pépé scores for Ivory Coast.
  • 67'SubstitutionAnge-Yoan Bonny· Oumar DiakitéIvory Coast change: Oumar Diakité.
  • 67'SubstitutionNicolas Pépé· Sepe Elye WahiIvory Coast change: Sepe Elye Wahi.
  • 67'SubstitutionYan Diomande· Bazoumana TouréIvory Coast change: Bazoumana Touré.
  • Yellow cardJuninho Bacuna· FoulJuninho Bacuna is booked — Foul.75'
  • SubstitutionJurien Gaari· Gervane KastaneerCuraçao change: Gervane Kastaneer.77'
  • SubstitutionDeveron Fonville· Tyrese NoslinCuraçao change: Tyrese Noslin.77'
  • 77'SubstitutionFranck Kessié· Jean Michaël SeriIvory Coast change: Jean Michaël Seri.
  • Yellow cardGervane Kastaneer· FoulGervane Kastaneer is booked — Foul.83'
  • SubstitutionJoshua Brenet· Shurandy SamboCuraçao change: Shurandy Sambo.90'
  • SubstitutionJürgen Locadia· Brandley KuwasCuraçao change: Brandley Kuwas.90'

Player involvement

Curaçao

Juninho Bacuna75' Yellow card
Gervane Kastaneer77' Off · 83' Yellow card

Ivory Coast

Nicolas Pépé7' Goal · 35' Yellow card · 64' Goal · 67' On
AYan Diomande7' Assist · 67' On
AIbrahim Sangaré64' Assist
Modelo pré-jogoCongelado antes do início

Pre-match forecast

Curaçao win
3.8%
Draw
20.6%
Ivory Coast win
75.6%
Curaçao
0.48
expected
goals
Ivory Coast
2.02

A probabilidade publicada para esta partida é fixada na confirmação das escalações (≈1 hora antes do início) e não se atualiza depois. É o número que a revisão pós-jogo cobra. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo na seção Live é uma estimativa separada, com atraso e descritiva; ela não substitui a previsão publicada.

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–2
    16.7%
  • 0–1
    16.1%
  • 0–3
    11.2%
  • 0–0
    8.7%
  • 1–1
    8.5%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

0 – 2
Ivory Coast win

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Curaçao win
    14.5%
  • Draw
    25.1%
  • Ivory Coast win· realised
    60.4%
Brier score
0.241
Log loss
0.504
xG (final / predicted)
0.00 / 0.49 · Curaçao
2.00 / 1.99 · Ivory Coast
P(realised outcome)
60.4%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Retrospectiva completa: previsão vs resultado →

Como funciona a probabilidade ao vivo. A previsão pré-jogo publicada é congelada no fechamento das escalações (T-1h) e não muda após o início; a revisão pós-jogo avalia esse número congelado frente ao resultado. A probabilidade de vitória ao vivo mostrada durante a partida é o mesmo modelo, relido conforme o placar e o tempo restante. Atualiza mais ou menos uma vez por minuto, está sempre com atraso e é um número descritivo de pesquisa, não um produto de jogos nem um preço de qualquer tipo. Veja /docs/methodology/ para o enquadramento completo.