Forecast vs result · Group J · Matchday 2

Argentina vs Austria

2026-06-22

The recap publishes at full time. Once this match finishes, this page shows how the frozen pre-match forecast below scored against the realised outcome: Brier score, log loss, and final xG vs predicted xG. Until then, follow it live on the live tracker.

Pre-match forecast

Argentina win
65.1%
Draw
25.7%
Austria win
9.2%
Argentina
1.61
expected
goals
Austria
0.60

Video analysis: player performance

Per-player ratings and event breakdowns from official highlights analysis. Tap a player to see their full match timeline.

Argentina
6
Lautaro Martínez

Contributed to the team's offensive shape with intelligent runs, though without direct goal involvement.

Austria
8
Austrian Goalkeeper9'–716'

Made numerous crucial saves, including an early penalty, preventing a much larger defeat for Austria.

11saves

Match timeline

9'Messi's penalty kick was saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
48'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
58'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
522'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
555'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
600'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
628'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
632'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
646'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
657'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) free-kick is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.
716'Lionel Messi's (10 ARG) shot is saved by the Austrian goalkeeper.

Match observations

  • The match highlights illustrate Argentina's attacking superiority, largely driven by Lionel Messi's influence. Austria adopted a defensive posture, frequently resorting to fouls to impede Argentina's offensive movements, especially against Messi.
  • The game was characterized by Argentina's persistent pressure and Austria's resilient, albeit often physical, defending.
  • The match began with a ceremonial display of national flags, setting a grand stage for the encounter.

How to read this. A single match's Brier and log-loss are noisy. What matters is how the forecast calibrates across many matches. This per-fixture recap is one row of the aggregate calibration scoreboard at /docs/calibration/. The pre-match probability shown here is the one frozen before kickoff; it was never re-priced during play.