Group F · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
2:2
Japan

The day's strongest pairing by combined FIFA ranking is free for everyone: full forecast and full live tracker. Every other match needs a Standard Pass. See the Pass

Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsJapan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.460.79−0.67
Japan0.990.54−0.45

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
10
Shots on target
6
3
Possession (%)
60%
40%
Corners
5
4
Fouls
7
7
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's structured press game meets Japan's low block shape. Japan will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Netherlands's high line leaves behind. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Memphis Depay's 12.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Japan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Ronald Koeman (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Japan.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 1
Date:
14 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Japan

Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

LiveDescriptive stats and the delayed live win probability · updates every ~30 seconds

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Japan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 51' · V. van DijkGoal, 57' · K. NakamuraGoal, 64' · C. SummervilleGoal, 88' · D. Kamada

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Japan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsJapan
  • GoalV. van Dijk· R. GravenberchV. van Dijk scores for Netherlands.51'
  • 57'GoalK. Nakamura· T. KuboK. Nakamura scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardC. Summerville· TrippingC. Summerville is booked — Tripping.61'
  • GoalC. Summerville· R. GravenberchC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.64'
  • 66'SubstitutionD. Maeda· J. ItoJapan change: J. Ito.
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.70'
  • SubstitutionC. Summerville· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.70'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· Q. TimberNetherlands change: Q. Timber.70'
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Watanabe· T. TomiyasuJapan change: T. Tomiyasu.
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Kubo· K. OgawaJapan change: K. Ogawa.
  • 75'SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.
  • SubstitutionR. Gravenberch· N. AkeNetherlands change: N. Ake.81'
  • Yellow cardM. Depay· RoughingM. Depay is booked — Roughing.83'
  • 84'SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. ShiogaiJapan change: K. Shiogai.
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· B. BrobbeyNetherlands change: B. Brobbey.85'
  • 88'GoalD. Kamada· K. OgawaD. Kamada scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardM. van de Ven· HoldingM. van de Ven is booked — Holding.90'+1

Player involvement

Netherlands

C. Summerville61' Yellow card · 64' Goal · 70' On
V. van Dijk51' Goal
AAR. Gravenberch51' Assist · 64' Assist · 81' On
M. Depay70' Off · 83' Yellow card
M. van de Ven90'+1 Yellow card

Japan

K. Nakamura57' Goal
D. Kamada88' Goal
AT. Kubo57' Assist · 75' On
AK. Ogawa75' Off · 88' Assist
Pre-match modelFrozen before kickoff

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
52.8%
Draw
24.1%
Japan win
23.2%
Netherlands
1.46
expected
goals
Japan
0.99

The published probability for this fixture is fixed at lineup confirmation (≈1 hour before kickoff) and never updates afterwards. It is the number the post-match recap holds accountable. The live win probability in the Live section is a separate, delayed, descriptive estimate; it does not replace the published forecast.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.2%
  • 1–0
    11.9%
  • 0–0
    9.4%
  • 2–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    9.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 2
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win
    44.6%
  • Draw· realised
    25.0%
  • Japan win
    30.3%
Brier score
0.853
Log loss
1.385
xG (final / predicted)
0.79 / 1.60 · Netherlands
0.54 / 1.03 · Japan
P(realised outcome)
25.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

Full forecast-vs-result recap →

How the live probability works. The published pre-match forecast is frozen at the T-1h lineup-confirmation pass and never changes after kickoff; the post-match recap scores that frozen number against the result. The live win probability shown during play is the same model re-read against the current score and time remaining. It refreshes about once a minute, is always delayed, and is a descriptive research figure, not a betting product or a price of any kind. See /docs/methodology/ for the full framing.