Group F · Matchday 1
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Live descriptive stats
Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.
Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.
Analysis
How it plays out
Netherlands's structured press game meets Japan's low block shape. Japan will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Netherlands's high line leaves behind. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it?
What decides it
Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Memphis Depay's 12.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Japan's primary defensive task.
Off the pitch
Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Ronald Koeman (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.
The angle
Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.
Latest news & match context
No recent headlines for Netherlands or Japan.
- Stage:
- Group F · Matchday 1
- Date:
- 14 Jun
Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.
- 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Netherlands
Netherlands come in at close to full strength.
Japan
Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.
- DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.
Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.
Chance-creation momentum
rolling 10-minute xG · delayedExpected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Japan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.
Live commentary & events
- GoalV. van Dijk· R. GravenberchV. van Dijk scores for Netherlands.51'
- 57'GoalK. Nakamura· T. KuboK. Nakamura scores for Japan.
- Yellow cardC. Summerville· TrippingC. Summerville is booked — Tripping.61'
- GoalC. Summerville· R. GravenberchC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.64'
- 66'SubstitutionD. Maeda· J. ItoJapan change: J. Ito.
- SubstitutionD. Malen· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.70'
- SubstitutionC. Summerville· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.70'
- SubstitutionT. Reijnders· Q. TimberNetherlands change: Q. Timber.70'
- 75'SubstitutionT. Watanabe· T. TomiyasuJapan change: T. Tomiyasu.
- 75'SubstitutionT. Kubo· K. OgawaJapan change: K. Ogawa.
- 75'SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.
- SubstitutionR. Gravenberch· N. AkeNetherlands change: N. Ake.81'
- Yellow cardM. Depay· RoughingM. Depay is booked — Roughing.83'
- 84'SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. ShiogaiJapan change: K. Shiogai.
- SubstitutionC. Gakpo· B. BrobbeyNetherlands change: B. Brobbey.85'
- 88'GoalD. Kamada· K. OgawaD. Kamada scores for Japan.
- Yellow cardM. van de Ven· HoldingM. van de Ven is booked — Holding.90'+1
Player involvement
Netherlands
Japan
Pre-match forecast
goals
La probabilité publiée pour ce match est fixée à la confirmation des compositions (≈1 heure avant le coup d'envoi) et ne change plus ensuite. C'est le chiffre dont le bilan d'après-match rend compte. La probabilité de victoire en direct de la section Live est une estimation distincte, différée et descriptive ; elle ne remplace pas la prévision publiée.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.
Post-match calibration
Pre-match probability vs realised outcome
- Netherlands win44.6%
- Draw· realised25.0%
- Japan win30.3%
Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.