Group F · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
2:2
Japan

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Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsJapan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.460.79−0.67
Japan0.990.54−0.45

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
10
Shots on target
6
3
Possession (%)
60%
40%
Corners
5
4
Fouls
7
7
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's structured press game meets Japan's low block shape. Japan will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Netherlands's high line leaves behind. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Memphis Depay's 12.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Japan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Ronald Koeman (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Japan.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 1
Date:
14 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Japan

Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

实时描述性数据与延迟的实时获胜概率 · 约每30秒更新

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Japan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 51' · V. van DijkGoal, 57' · K. NakamuraGoal, 64' · C. SummervilleGoal, 88' · D. Kamada

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Japan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsJapan
  • GoalV. van Dijk· R. GravenberchV. van Dijk scores for Netherlands.51'
  • 57'GoalK. Nakamura· T. KuboK. Nakamura scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardC. Summerville· TrippingC. Summerville is booked — Tripping.61'
  • GoalC. Summerville· R. GravenberchC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.64'
  • 66'SubstitutionD. Maeda· J. ItoJapan change: J. Ito.
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.70'
  • SubstitutionC. Summerville· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.70'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· Q. TimberNetherlands change: Q. Timber.70'
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Watanabe· T. TomiyasuJapan change: T. Tomiyasu.
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Kubo· K. OgawaJapan change: K. Ogawa.
  • 75'SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.
  • SubstitutionR. Gravenberch· N. AkeNetherlands change: N. Ake.81'
  • Yellow cardM. Depay· RoughingM. Depay is booked — Roughing.83'
  • 84'SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. ShiogaiJapan change: K. Shiogai.
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· B. BrobbeyNetherlands change: B. Brobbey.85'
  • 88'GoalD. Kamada· K. OgawaD. Kamada scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardM. van de Ven· HoldingM. van de Ven is booked — Holding.90'+1

Player involvement

Netherlands

C. Summerville61' Yellow card · 64' Goal · 70' On
V. van Dijk51' Goal
AAR. Gravenberch51' Assist · 64' Assist · 81' On
M. Depay70' Off · 83' Yellow card
M. van de Ven90'+1 Yellow card

Japan

K. Nakamura57' Goal
D. Kamada88' Goal
AT. Kubo57' Assist · 75' On
AK. Ogawa75' Off · 88' Assist
赛前模型开球前锁定

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
52.8%
Draw
24.1%
Japan win
23.1%
Netherlands
1.46
expected
goals
Japan
0.99

本场比赛的已发布概率在首发名单确认时（开球前约1小时）固定，此后不再更新。赛后回顾问责的就是这个数字。Live 区域中的实时获胜概率是另一个有延迟的描述性估计，不会取代已发布的预测。

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.2%
  • 1–0
    11.9%
  • 0–0
    9.4%
  • 2–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    9.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 2
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win
    44.6%
  • Draw· realised
    25.0%
  • Japan win
    30.3%
Brier score
0.853
Log loss
1.385
xG (final / predicted)
0.79 / 1.60 · Netherlands
0.54 / 1.03 · Japan
P(realised outcome)
25.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

完整预测与结果回顾 →

实时概率如何运作。 已发布的赛前预测在首发名单锁定（T-1h）时冻结，开球后不再变化；赛后回顾会用结果检验这个被冻结的数字。比赛中显示的实时获胜概率，是同一个模型按当前比分和剩余时间重新读取的结果。它大约每分钟刷新一次，始终有延迟，是描述性的研究数字，不是博弈类产品，也不是任何形式的价格。完整框架见 /docs/methodology/ 。