Group F · Matchday 1

Full-timeFT
Netherlands
2:2
Japan

합산 FIFA 랭킹 기준 그날 가장 강력한 대진은 누구나 무료입니다. 전체 예측과 전체 라이브 트래커를 제공합니다. 다른 모든 경기는 Standard Pass가 필요합니다. Pass 보기

Live descriptive stats

NetherlandsJapan
Expected goals (xG) — predicted vs actual
predictedactualdiff
Netherlands1.460.79−0.67
Japan0.990.54−0.45

Predicted = the pre-match model's expected goals; actual = xG created so far. A calibration read, not a forecast.

Shots
10
10
Shots on target
6
3
Possession (%)
60%
40%
Corners
5
4
Fouls
7
7
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0

Descriptive only — the pre-match probability tile above does not change during the match.

Analysis

How it plays out

Netherlands's structured press game meets Japan's low block shape. Japan will concede territory deliberately and look to hit the spaces Netherlands's high line leaves behind. Netherlands's aggressive press (PPDA 20.6) against Japan's deeper build-up (PPDA 26.7) creates a clear territory question: can Netherlands force errors high up, or will Japan play through the press and find space behind it?

What decides it

Netherlands press high (PPDA 20.6). If the press doesn't win the ball early, the space behind their back line becomes exposed. Japan defend deep and limit space. Set pieces and individual errors become the most likely routes to goal. Memphis Depay's 12.8% scoring probability is the highest in this fixture. Containing that output is Japan's primary defensive task.

Off the pitch

Hajime Moriyasu (8 years in charge of Japan) vs Ronald Koeman (3 years). That tenure gap shows up in squad familiarity and set-piece coordination.

The angle

Likely the last World Cup for Virgil van Dijk. Tournament experience at this level is hard to quantify but hard to replace.

Latest news & match context

Team news

No recent headlines for Netherlands or Japan.

Match conditions
Stage:
Group F · Matchday 1
Date:
14 Jun
Beyond the model

Ranked by likely importance. None of these feed the forecast: the probabilities rest on team strength, venue conditions and the style matchup.

  1. 1.Squad availability: 1 carrying a fitness doubt across the two squads. The forecast does not adjust for who is missing: its lineup channel currently contributes zero, so this is context the probabilities do not include.
Availability

Netherlands

Netherlands come in at close to full strength.

Japan

Japan: 1 carrying a fitness doubt.

  • DoubtWataru Endo (midfielder) is carrying Foot injury — a depth-level fitness watch item.
What it means

Both projected XIs look intact; the fitness concerns are at squad-depth level rather than among first-choice starters.

Availability from the predicted squads and injury feed; forecast adjustments from the model's own decomposition. See /docs/methodology/.

실시간설명적 스탯과 지연 제공 라이브 승리 확률 · 약 30초마다 갱신

Chance-creation momentum

rolling 10-minute xG · delayed
Netherlands (above the line)Japan (below)
15'30'HT60'75'Goal, 51' · V. van DijkGoal, 57' · K. NakamuraGoal, 64' · C. SummervilleGoal, 88' · D. Kamada

Expected goals created in the trailing 10 minutes, Netherlands minus Japan: a description of recent chances, not a forecast. Built from the same delayed snapshot as the rest of this page.

Live commentary & events

NetherlandsJapan
  • GoalV. van Dijk· R. GravenberchV. van Dijk scores for Netherlands.51'
  • 57'GoalK. Nakamura· T. KuboK. Nakamura scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardC. Summerville· TrippingC. Summerville is booked — Tripping.61'
  • GoalC. Summerville· R. GravenberchC. Summerville scores for Netherlands.64'
  • 66'SubstitutionD. Maeda· J. ItoJapan change: J. Ito.
  • SubstitutionD. Malen· M. DepayNetherlands change: M. Depay.70'
  • SubstitutionC. Summerville· T. KoopmeinersNetherlands change: T. Koopmeiners.70'
  • SubstitutionT. Reijnders· Q. TimberNetherlands change: Q. Timber.70'
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Watanabe· T. TomiyasuJapan change: T. Tomiyasu.
  • 75'SubstitutionT. Kubo· K. OgawaJapan change: K. Ogawa.
  • 75'SubstitutionR. Doan· Y. SugawaraJapan change: Y. Sugawara.
  • SubstitutionR. Gravenberch· N. AkeNetherlands change: N. Ake.81'
  • Yellow cardM. Depay· RoughingM. Depay is booked — Roughing.83'
  • 84'SubstitutionA. Ueda· K. ShiogaiJapan change: K. Shiogai.
  • SubstitutionC. Gakpo· B. BrobbeyNetherlands change: B. Brobbey.85'
  • 88'GoalD. Kamada· K. OgawaD. Kamada scores for Japan.
  • Yellow cardM. van de Ven· HoldingM. van de Ven is booked — Holding.90'+1

Player involvement

Netherlands

C. Summerville61' Yellow card · 64' Goal · 70' On
V. van Dijk51' Goal
AAR. Gravenberch51' Assist · 64' Assist · 81' On
M. Depay70' Off · 83' Yellow card
M. van de Ven90'+1 Yellow card

Japan

K. Nakamura57' Goal
D. Kamada88' Goal
AT. Kubo57' Assist · 75' On
AK. Ogawa75' Off · 88' Assist
경기 전 모델킥오프 전 고정

Pre-match forecast

Netherlands win
52.8%
Draw
24.1%
Japan win
23.1%
Netherlands
1.46
expected
goals
Japan
0.99

이 경기의 공개 확률은 라인업 확정 시점(킥오프 약 1시간 전)에 고정되며 이후 갱신되지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰가 책임을 묻는 수치가 바로 이것입니다. 라이브 섹션의 라이브 승리 확률은 별도의 지연 제공 설명적 추정치로, 공개된 예측을 대체하지 않습니다.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–1
    13.2%
  • 1–0
    11.9%
  • 0–0
    9.4%
  • 2–0
    9.2%
  • 2–1
    9.1%

From the Dixon-Coles joint Poisson with the low-score correction. Scorelines are listed in probability order; this is a description of the model's distribution, not a recommendation.

Post-match calibration

2 – 2
Draw

Pre-match probability vs realised outcome

  • Netherlands win
    44.6%
  • Draw· realised
    25.0%
  • Japan win
    30.3%
Brier score
0.853
Log loss
1.385
xG (final / predicted)
0.79 / 1.60 · Netherlands
0.54 / 1.03 · Japan
P(realised outcome)
25.0%

Brier and log-loss on a single fixture are noisy; the calibration plot in the post-tournament research note aggregates these across every match.

전체 예측 대 결과 회고 →

라이브 확률의 작동 방식. 공개된 경기 전 예측은 라인업 확정(T-1h) 시점에 동결되어 킥오프 이후 변하지 않습니다. 경기 후 리뷰는 이 동결된 수치를 결과와 대조합니다. 경기 중 표시되는 라이브 승리 확률은 같은 모델을 현재 스코어와 남은 시간에 맞춰 다시 읽은 것입니다. 약 1분마다 갱신되고 항상 지연되며, 설명적 리서치 수치일 뿐 사행성 상품도, 어떤 형태의 가격도 아닙니다. 전체 프레임은 /docs/methodology/ 에서 확인하세요.