Measured in public

12 Jun 2026

Every probability below was published before kickoff and locked. This page scores each one against what actually happened.

2 of 2 matches graded
0
Nailed it
High confidence, right result
0
Strong read
Gave the most probability to what happened
2
Expected
Result was within the range
0
Surprise
The model didn't see this coming

Day average: Within expectations

  • CanadavsBosnia and Herzegovina
    GradedLocked 10 Jun
    1 – 1
    • Canada54.7%
    • Draw · realised26.4%
    • Bosnia and Herzegovina18.9%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina was an outcome the model rated at 26.4% (26.4% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.876, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Beats marketsGave more probability to the result

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    Canada
    8Cyle LarinCame off the bench to score the crucial equalizing goal, making a significant impact.
    6Liam MillarCommitted a foul and was substituted without making a significant impact.
    6Jonathan DavidDrew a yellow card for an opponent but had no other significant actions.
    Bosnia and Herzegovina
    8Jovo LukićScored Bosnia's opening goal with a header from a corner.
    8Nikola VasiljMade several crucial saves throughout the match, keeping his team in contention.
    7Sead KolašinacMade an astonishing goal-line clearance but received an early yellow card.
  • United StatesvsParaguay
    GradedLocked 10 Jun
    4 – 1
    • United States · realised29.3%
    • Draw29.4%
    • Paraguay41.3%
    Verdict
    Within expectations

    United States 4–1 Paraguay was an outcome the model rated at 29.3% (29.3% before kickoff). The match scores a Brier of 0.757, worse than the 0.667 no-skill mark.

    Markets gave more probability to the result

    Match ratings

    Player scores from official highlights analysis. Observational, not a model input.

    United States
    9Folarin BalogunScored two crucial goals for the USA, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong offensive presence.
    8Gio ReynaContributed a well-placed goal for the USA, adding to their commanding lead.
    7Weston McKennieShowed good attacking intent with a notable shot on goal that tested the opposition goalkeeper.
    Paraguay
    3Damian BobadillaScored an own goal that put the USA ahead, representing a costly error for his team.

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Model report card — 12 Jun 2026 · onthepitch