Mexico ★
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CONCACAF·Groep A·FIFA #15
High-pressing side with a Guadalajara-heavy spine.
- Rivaal
- South Korea (#22)
- Sleutel
- Raúl Jiménez (FW)
Final squad announced · Mexico · 2026-05-22
Source: bolavip.com ↗Toernooivooruitzicht
Analysis
Mexico have home advantage as tournament hosts, and the model rates them at 0.6% to lift the trophy (19th in the field). Drawn in Group A alongside South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic, they are projected at 96.0% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Mexico under Javier Aguirre play a high press game, holding 55% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 3-5-2, though they have also used 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. They press intensely (PPDA 16.1, top quartile (5th of 40)). They generate a high volume of shots (15.0 per 90).
Path to success
Mexico face South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic in Group A, with a 96.0% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 20.3%, though reaching the semi-finals (6.9%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Mexico need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.
Controversial take
The model rates Mexico slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 1.6 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
High press · style profile from 10 recent matches
What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.
Percentiles position Mexico against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group A finish · Mexico
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 58.4%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 25.8%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 12.1%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 3.7%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Mexico
, 50,000 sims- 94.3%AdvAdvance from group
- 52.2%R16Round of 16
- 19.8%QFQuarter-final
- 6.6%SFSemi-final
- 2.1%FFinal
- 0.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Mexico
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
De selectie
Confirmed squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.250
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 75%
- 3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Salernitana1
- Genoa1
- Fulham1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Johan VásquezCentre-backLikely cover: Jesús Alberto Angulo · 0.69UANL0.22gap to repl.
- Edson ÁlvarezDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Luis Chávez · 0.70Dynamo Moscow0.19gap to repl.
- Orbelín PinedaCentral midfieldLikely cover: Érick Sánchez · 0.67América0.00gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Groepsschema
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 11, 2026 | South Africa | Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2 | Jun 18, 2026 | South Korea | Zapopan, Mexico |
| 3 | Jun 24, 2026 | Czech Republic | Mexico City, Mexico |
Onderlinge confrontaties
Verhaallijnen
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago40 at kickoff with 151 caps — last World Cup for the #1.
3 group-stage matches at altitude — Mexico City (2240m), Guadalajara (1565m), Mexico City (2240m). Thinner air shifts ball flight and recovery.
4 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Guadalajara — a single-club spine on the international side.
Only 4 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.
Vorm en trackrecord
Statistical profile
High PressAttack
Defence
GK: Luis Malagón
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 10 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Mexico trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1858.0 to 1860.0 (+2.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.4% to 0.6% (+0.1pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NBelgium | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | HPortugal | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-02-25 | HIceland | 4–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-25 | ABolivia | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2026-01-22 | APanama | 1–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NParaguay | 1–2 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-11-15 | HUruguay | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | HEcuador | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-11 | NColombia | 0–4 | L | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | NSouth Korea | 2–2 | D | Friendly |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 2025 — Draw (2–2) · Friendly |
| South Africa | 4 | 2-1-1 | 2010 — Draw (1–1) · FIFA World Cup |
| Czech Republic | 1 | 0-0-1 | 2000 — Loss (1–2) · Lunar New Year Cup |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Cup | 2025 | Champion | 5-1-0 |
|
| Copa América | 2024 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
United States · Copa América 2024
Exited at the group stage
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1901) and group draw.