Belgium
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0UEFA·Groep G·FIFA #8
Thibaut Courtois: #2 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.99 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
- Rivaal
- Iran (#20)
- Sleutel
- Kevin De Bruyne (MF)
Toernooivooruitzicht
Analysis
Belgium are rated at 3.0% to win the tournament, placing them 10th in the field. The squad bridges generations: Axel Witsel (37 at kickoff with 136 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside Mike Penders, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group G alongside Iran, Egypt, New Zealand, they are projected at 97.2% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Belgium under Rudi Garcia play a balanced game, holding 54% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a other, though they have also used 4-2-3-1. They apply moderate pressing intensity (PPDA 23.1) and build patiently through midfield with 7.7 passes per attacking sequence.
Path to success
Belgium face Iran, Egypt, New Zealand in Group G, with a 97.2% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 39.9%, though reaching the semi-finals (16.1%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Belgium will need to leverage their strengths while managing the physical demands of a tournament spread across three host countries. Managing minutes for Axel Witsel across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model rates Belgium slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 3.0 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Balanced · style profile from 19 recent matches
What to watch: a high-tempo game, circulating the ball quickly.
Percentiles position Belgium against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group G finish · Belgium
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 61.0%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 25.3%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 10.9%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.8%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Belgium
, 50,000 sims- 95.5%AdvAdvance from group
- 66.2%R16Round of 16
- 38.2%QFQuarter-final
- 15.7%SFSemi-final
- 7.5%FFinal
- 3.1%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Belgium
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsMost frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.
R32
Round of 32
R16
Round of 16
De selectie
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
- Pairwise club minutes
- 1.91%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.140
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 50%
- 5 of 10 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Eintracht Frankfurt2
- Manchester City2
- Real Madrid1
Most-connected club pair
Kevin De Bruyne + Jérémy Doku — Manchester City, 2024-25 · 2,751 shared minutes
Show next 2
- Arthur Theate + Michy Batshuayi — Eintracht Frankfurt, 2024-25 · 288 min
- Arthur Theate + Jérémy Doku — Rennes, 2023-24 · 110 min
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Romelu LukakuStrikerLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level ST ~0.220.39gap to repl.
- Kevin De BruyneAttacking midfieldLikely cover: Hans Vanaken · 0.63Club Brugge0.34gap to repl.
- Youri TielemansCentral midfieldLikely cover: no natural backupreplacement-level CM ~0.280.33gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Groepsschema
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt | Seattle, United States |
| 2 | Jun 21, 2026 | Iran | Inglewood, United States |
| 3 | Jun 26, 2026 | New Zealand | Vancouver, Canada |
Onderlinge confrontaties
Verhaallijnen
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago#2 starting-GK rating in the field — 0.99 on club-derived save metrics across 48 teams.
37 at kickoff with 136 caps — probably his final World Cup.
First World Cup as head coach, appointed 2025.
Takes corners and penalties — the team's dead-ball threat.
Vorm en trackrecord
Statistical profile
BalancedAttack
Defence
GK: Thibaut Courtois
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: light
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 19 matches (Euro2020,Euro2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Belgium trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1866.0 to 1867.0 (+1.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 2.1% to 3.0% (+0.9pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NMexico | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-28 | AUnited States | 5–2 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | HLiechtenstein | 7–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-11-15 | AKazakhstan | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-13 | AWales | 4–2 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-10-10 | HNorth Macedonia | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-07 | HKazakhstan | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | ALiechtenstein | 6–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-09 | HWales | 4–3 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-06 | ANorth Macedonia | 1–1 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | 4 | 1-0-3 | 2022 — Loss (1–2) · Friendly |
| Iran | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| New Zealand | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro | 2024 | Round of 16 | 1-1-2 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
England · World Cup 2018
Finished fourth
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1987) and group draw.
Italy · Euro 2016
Exited at the quarter-final
Spain · Euro 2016
Exited at the round of 16