Ecuador
Snapshot · 2026-06-11Model 1.0.0CONMEBOL·Groep E·FIFA #23
Transition-heavy side.
- Rivaal
- Germany (#9)
- Sleutel
- Kevin Rodríguez (FW)
Toernooivooruitzicht
Analysis
Ecuador sit in the second tier of contenders with a 1.5% tournament probability (14th in the field). The squad bridges generations: Enner Valencia (36 at kickoff with 105 caps — probably his final world cup) alongside wp-deinner-ordonez-2009-10-29, the squad's youngest prospect. Drawn in Group E alongside Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao, they are projected at 95.7% to advance to the knockout stage.
How they play
Ecuador under Sebastián Beccacece play a transition heavy game with 47% possession. Their likely shape is a 4-3-3, though they have also used 4-4-2 and other. They press intensely (PPDA 16.5, top quartile (6th of 40)) and move the ball forward quickly at 5.2 passes per attack. They favour high-quality chances (xG/shot 0.140, among the best in the field).
Path to success
Ecuador face Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao in Group E, with a 95.7% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 22.6%, though reaching the semi-finals (10.7%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.
What they must execute
Ecuador rely on defensive discipline and quick transitions — absorbing pressure and converting turnovers into attacking chances. Concentration and defensive organisation for full 90-minute stretches will determine whether the approach holds against top opposition. Managing minutes for Enner Valencia across what could be seven matches will test the coaching staff's rotation planning.
Controversial take
The model's assessment of Ecuador broadly aligns with their FIFA ranking — no major disagreement between the two systems for this squad.
Key numbers
How they play
Style vs the 48-team field
Transition-heavy · style profile from 7 recent matches
What to watch: a notably direct, vertical attack.
Percentiles position Ecuador against the 48-team field — higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.
Group E finish · Ecuador
Monte Carlo, 50,000 simsTop two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.
- 37.3%1st (group winner)Advances to R32
- 40.7%2nd (runner-up)Advances to R32
- 20.0%3rdAdvances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
- 2.1%4thEliminated
Stage progression · Ecuador
, 50,000 sims- 94.3%AdvAdvance from group
- 51.4%R16Round of 16
- 23.0%QFQuarter-final
- 11.1%SFSemi-final
- 4.2%FFinal
- 1.6%WinWin the tournament
Likely knockout path · Ecuador
Monte Carlo, 10,000 simsDe selectie
Predicted squad
Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28No jersey numbers assigned in the underlying source. The 26 below are picked by the model from the team's recent call-up pool.
★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
- Pos
- Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
- Caps
- Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
- Stat
- Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
- Rating
- Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.
Squad cohesion
Projected XI · club overlap
Low coverage: 2/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.
- Pairwise club minutes
- 0.00%
- Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
- Club concentration
- 0.500
- How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
- Top-3 clubs share
- 100%
- 2 of 2 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.
Top clubs in projected XI
- Bayer Leverkusen1
- Chelsea1
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Squad depth
Projected XI · replaceability
Most irreplaceable starters
- Joel OrdóñezCentre-backLikely cover: Jackson Porozo · 0.05Tijuana0.80gap to repl.
- Ángelo PreciadoFull-backLikely cover: José Hurtado · 0.00Red Bull Bragantino0.64gap to repl.
- Félix TorresCentre-backLikely cover: Jackson Porozo · 0.05Tijuana0.57gap to repl.
Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.
Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Groepsschema
Group-stage schedule
| MD | Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 14, 2026 | Ivory Coast | Philadelphia, United States |
| 2 | Jun 20, 2026 | Curaçao | Kansas City, United States |
| 3 | Jun 25, 2026 | Germany | East Rutherford, United States |
Onderlinge confrontaties
Verhaallijnen
Storylines
Updated 14 days ago16 at kickoff — 0 caps — projected on the bench, the squad's youngest pick.
36 at kickoff with 105 caps — probably his final World Cup.
Top pool goalkeeper Hernán Galíndez rates only 0.44 on club save metrics (the field's top sides sit at 0.85+) — a thin position group going into the tournament.
Converted only 3 of 5 career penalties (60%) — a wasteful record from the spot in knockouts.
Vorm en trackrecord
Statistical profile
Transition HeavyAttack
Defence
GK: Hernán Galíndez
Set pieces
Style
Squad
Workload class: low
Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.
Where goals come from
Phase of play · scored & conceded
- Open play
- Set piece
- Counter
- Penalty
Share of goals by how the chance began, across 7 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →
Group-stage matchups
Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.
Rating & probability history
10 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-10Ecuador trajectory: 10 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-10 (19 days). Elo moved from 1933.0 to 1933.0 (0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 1.2% to 1.7% (+0.5pp).
Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.
Recent form (10 matches)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | ANetherlands | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2026-03-27 | NMorocco | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-11-18 | NNew Zealand | 2–0 | W | Friendly |
| 2025-11-13 | ACanada | 0–0 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-14 | AMexico | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-10-10 | AUnited States | 1–1 | D | Friendly |
| 2025-09-09 | HArgentina | 1–0 | W | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-09-04 | AParaguay | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-10 | APeru | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
| 2025-06-05 | HBrazil | 0–0 | D | FIFA World Cup qualification |
martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.
Head-to-head vs group opponents
| Opponent | Meetings | W-D-L | Last meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2013 — Loss (2–4) · Friendly |
| Curaçao | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
| Ivory Coast | 0 | — | No prior meetings |
All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.
Major tournaments — most recent appearance
| Tournament | Year | Finish | W-D-L | Since then |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa América | 2024 | Quarter-finals | 1-2-1 |
|
| FIFA World Cup | 2022 | Group stage | 1-1-1 |
|
| Gold Cup | 2002 | 2 matches | 1-0-1 |
|
Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.
Most similar past team-tournaments
Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.
Uruguay · World Cup 2018
Exited at the quarter-final
Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1939) and group draw.
Argentina · Copa América 2004
Won the tournament
Uruguay · Copa América 2016
Exited at the group stage