Mexico ★

Snapshot · 2026-07-14Model 1.0.0

CONCACAF·A조·FIFA #15

R16 contender

High-pressing side with a Guadalajara-heavy spine.

라이벌
South Korea (#22)
핵심
Raúl Jiménez (FW)
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Final squad announced · Mexico · 2026-06-03

Source: Diario AS ↗

WC2026 results

Record4W · 0D · 0L
Goals8:0 (+8)
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultVenue
Jun 11South Africa2–0WMexico City
Jun 18South Korea1–0WZapopan
Jun 24Czech Republic3–0WMexico City
Jul 1Ecuador2–0WMexico City
1

토너먼트 전망

Analysis

Mexico have home advantage as tournament hosts, and the model rates them at 0.6% to lift the trophy (19th in the field). Drawn in Group A alongside South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic, they are projected at 96.0% to advance to the knockout stage.

How they play

Mexico under Javier Aguirre play a high press game, holding 55% of the ball — among the highest in the tournament field. Their likely shape is a 3-5-2, though they have also used 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. They press intensely (PPDA 16.1, top quartile (5th of 40)). They generate a high volume of shots (15.0 per 90).

Path to success

Mexico face South Korea, South Africa, Czech Republic in Group A, with a 96.0% probability of advancing to the knockout rounds. A quarter-final run is realistic at 20.3%, though reaching the semi-finals (6.9%) would represent an exceptional campaign. Navigating the expanded 48-team format, which adds a round of 32, means an extra knockout fixture for any team with title ambitions.

What they must execute

Mexico need their high press to force turnovers in dangerous areas — if opponents can play through the press, the space left behind is vulnerable. Physical conditioning and squad rotation will be critical to sustain pressing intensity across a long tournament.

Controversial take

The model rates Mexico slightly lower than their FIFA ranking implies (a gap of 1.6 percentage points) — a modest divergence but one that reflects differences in how the two systems weight recent form.

Key numbers

0.6%Win probability19th in field
1860Elo ratingRanked 20th globally
3-5-2Predicted formationFrom 3 observed matches
0.076xG per shotbottom quartile (41st of 48)
34.7%Tournament goal probability — Raúl JiménezTop projected scorer in the squad (FW)
2.4 yearsManager tenureJavier Aguirre — 3 World Cups as coach

How they play

Style vs the 48-team field

High press · style profile from 10 recent matches

Press
16.1
89
Build-up
6
36
Directness
6.7
64
Width (proxy)
441.2
59
Tempo
8.1
24
Set-piece reliance
9.5
22

What to watch: one of the more intense presses in the field.

Percentiles position Mexico against the 48-team field. Higher means more of that trait, not better or worse. Press is inverted (lower PPDA = higher press); width uses crossing rate as a proxy; tempo is open-play passes per minute of possession. Descriptive style analytics; does not feed the published probabilities.

Group A finish · Mexico

Monte Carlo, 100,000 sims

Top two advance to the round of 32; best 8 of 12 third-placed teams also qualify.

  • 1st (group winner)
    Advances to R32
    54.2%
  • 2nd (runner-up)
    Advances to R32
    25.8%
  • 3rd
    Advances only if among the best 8 of 12 third-placed teams
    13.4%
  • 4th
    Eliminated
    6.5%

Stage progression · Mexico

, 100,000 sims
  1. 90.9%AdvAdvance from group
  2. 48.0%R16Round of 16
  3. 17.2%QFQuarter-final
  4. 5.2%SFSemi-final
  5. 1.5%FFinal
  6. 0.4%WinWin the tournament

Likely knockout path · Mexico

Monte Carlo, 10,000 sims

Most frequent opponents per round, conditional on reaching it.

R32

Round of 32

Switzerland12%
Ivory Coast10%
Canada9%

R16

Round of 16

England25%
Croatia10%
Morocco8%

QF

Quarter-final

Brazil18%
Germany12%
France12%

SF

Semi-final

Argentina18%
Spain12%
Portugal9%

F

Final

Argentina14%
Portugal8%
France7%
2

스쿼드

Confirmed squad

Model-predicted · snapshot 2026-05-28

Roster confirmed by the federation's official squad announcement. The XI/bench split below is the model's composite-rating ordering, not the head coach's lineup.

Goalkeepers (1)
PlayerStat
GK
Guillermo OchoaCaps-driven↘AEL Limassol
151c67save%0.30
Defenders (4)
PlayerStat
DF
César MontesCaps-driven→Lokomotiv Moscow
65c—0.66
DF
Jesús GallardoCaps-driven↘Toluca
119c—0.60
DF
Johan Vásquez↗Genoa
44c80tackles0.91
DF
Jorge SánchezCaps-drivenPAOK
57c—0.55
Midfielders (3)
PlayerStat
MF
Edson ÁlvarezCaps-driven↗Fenerbahçe
96c2assists0.89
MF
Orbelín PinedaCaps-drivenAEK Athens
90c10assists0.67
MF
Luis RomoCaps-driven↗Guadalajara
61c6assists0.61
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
Raúl JiménezCaps-driven→Fulham
123c44goals0.55
FW
Alexis VegaCaps-drivenToluca
50c7goals0.47
FW
Santiago GiménezCaps-drivenMilan
46c6goals0.43
Bench

★ likely first sub badge on the top-3 by first-sub score within each position group, plus a late-game impact rating where club per-90 stats are available.

Goalkeepers (2)
PlayerStat
GK
Raúl RangelRating-drivenGuadalajara★ Likely first sub
12c—0.78
GK
Carlos AcevedoRating-drivenSantos Laguna★ Likely first sub
7c—0.76
Defenders (5)
PlayerStat
DF
Israel ReyesAmérica★ Likely first sub
32c—0.62
DF
Julián AraujoRating-drivenCeltic★ Likely first sub
16c—0.79
DF
Jesús Alberto AnguloRating-drivenUANL★ Likely first sub
19c—0.69
DF
Mateo ChávezCaps-drivenAZ
8c—0.00
DF
Víctor GuzmánCaps-drivenMonterrey
6c—0.00
Midfielders (5)
PlayerStat
MF
Carlos RodríguezCaps-drivenCruz Azul★ Likely first sub
67c3assists0.63
MF
Roberto AlvaradoCaps-drivenGuadalajara
66c7assists0.54
MF
Luis ChávezCaps-driven↘Dynamo Moscow★ Likely first sub
43c3assists0.70
MF
Érick SánchezAmérica★ Likely first sub
38c1assists0.67
MF
Diego LainezCaps-drivenUANLimpact 33/100
33c3assists0.49
Forwards (3)
PlayerStat
FW
César HuertaAnderlecht★ Likely first sub
25c3goals0.60
FW
Julián QuiñonesAl-Qadsiah★ Likely first sub
20c2goals0.54
FW
Germán BerterameRating-drivenInter Miami★ Likely first sub
9c2goals0.62
▸How to read this squad— 4 columns explained
Pos
Broad position bucket — GK / DF / MF / FW.
Caps
Senior international appearances. Used by the model as a recency-weighted signal of how often the manager calls the player up.
Stat
Position-aware stat: career international goals for forwards; career international assists for midfielders (Transfermarkt); latest available Big-5 club season's total tackles for defenders (FBref); latest available Big-5 club season's save percentage for goalkeepers (FBref). Em-dash when no data is joined — most often for defenders and keepers at non-Big-5 clubs.
Rating
Composite rating (Model #4) — combines recent caps + goals, recent club xG and xAG per 90, position-relative quality, and call-up priors. Higher = the model thinks the player is more likely to start. Typically 0.9 (depth) to 2.5 (elite).
★ Likely first sub — the bench player the model rates most likely to be the first substitute for their position. Computed from a first-sub score (cap-recency + impact rating); ties broken by Rating.

Selection driver — coloured chips show which input dominates a player's selection score. Caps-driven = selected mainly on international experience. Rating-driven = selected mainly on club performance quality. Jersey-boosted = jersey number from a recent squad snapshot lifted their score. Goals-driven = international goal record was the decisive factor. No chip when the score is a balanced blend.

Squad cohesion

Projected XI · club overlap

Low coverage: 4/11 of the projected XI have club-minutes rows in our ratings table. Numbers below are structurally suppressed and should be read alongside the resolved count, not in isolation.

Pairwise club minutes
0.00%
Share of the 55-pair × 3000-minute ceiling. Higher = more of the XI plays together at club level.
Club concentration
0.250
How concentrated the XI is across clubs. 0.091 = 11 different clubs · 1.000 = all the same club.
Top-3 clubs share
75%
3 of 4 play for the three most common clubs in the XI.

Top clubs in projected XI

  • Salernitana1
  • Genoa1
  • Fulham1

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Squad depth

Projected XI · replaceability

Most irreplaceable starters

  1. Johan VásquezCentre-backLikely cover: Jesús Alberto Angulo · 0.69UANL0.22gap to repl.
  2. Edson ÁlvarezDefensive midfieldLikely cover: Luis Chávez · 0.70Dynamo Moscow0.19gap to repl.
  3. Orbelín PinedaCentral midfieldLikely cover: Érick Sánchez · 0.67América0.00gap to repl.

Gap to repl. = how far this nation's rating at the position falls from the starter to his likely in-squad replacement (named above). Larger = harder to replace.

Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

3

조별 리그 일정

Group-stage schedule

MDDateOpponentVenue
1Jun 11, 2026South AfricaMexico City, Mexico
2Jun 18, 2026South KoreaZapopan, Mexico
3Jun 24, 2026Czech RepublicMexico City, Mexico

상대 전적

Mexico 예상 득점자 →

4

주요 이야기

Storylines

Updated 49 days ago
Veteran #1Guillermo Ochoa

40 at kickoff with 151 caps — last World Cup for the #1.

Altitude schedule

3 group-stage matches at altitude — Mexico City (2240m), Guadalajara (1565m), Mexico City (2240m). Thinner air shifts ball flight and recovery.

Club core

4 of 26 predicted-squad players play their club football for Guadalajara — a single-club spine on the international side.

League pedigree

Only 4 of 26 predicted-squad players played in a top-5 European league last season — the rest play home or in non-top-5 leagues.

5

폼 및 과거 기록

Video analysis: Mexico

Performance data from official highlights analysis across 5 matches. 17 players observed, 37 events tracked.

9.3
Julián QuiñonesStandout performer

Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.

8 goals
16
Goals
4
Shots
8
Saves
1
Blocks
0
Fouls won
0
Cards
2
Headers
Rating spread(29 ratings)
8+ (13)7 (8)6 (4)5- (4)

Match by match

gs-001
4 goals
gs-025
gs-049
10 goals2 shots
r16-004
2 goals2 shots
r32-007

Player ratings (17)

9.3
Julián Quiñones3 apps · 14 events
8 goals2 shots
9910
▼

Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.

gs-0019Scored two crucial goals for Mexico with a close-range finish and a rebound, and was active in creating further opportunities.
gs-0499Quiñones was instrumental in Mexico's attack, scoring two goals and providing an assist, showcasing excellent finishing and movement.
r16-00410Scored four crucial goals, including a free-kick and a penalty, to lead Mexico's remarkable comeback efforts.
9
Santiago Giménez1 app
9
▼

Scored both of Mexico's goals with clinical finishing and excellent movement in the penalty area.

gs-0259Scored both of Mexico's goals with clinical finishing and excellent movement in the penalty area.
8.5
Raúl Jiménez4 apps · 6 events
4 goals1 shot (1 on target)
9898
▼

Scored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.

gs-0019Scored two goals for Mexico, including a header and a composed finish, significantly extending his team's lead.
gs-0498Jiménez scored a crucial goal, demonstrating good positioning and finishing to extend Mexico's lead.
r16-0049Scored two penalties and a free-kick, consistently threatening the opposition goal throughout the match.
r32-0078Scored a goal with a composed finish, extending Mexico's lead.
8
Luis Chávez1 app · 2 events
2 goals
8
▼

Chávez scored a brilliant individual goal, showcasing composure and skill in a counter-attacking move.

gs-0498Chávez scored a brilliant individual goal, showcasing composure and skill in a counter-attacking move.
8
Uriel Antuna1 app
8
▼

Scored a goal and was an active threat in attack, including from set pieces.

r32-0078Scored a goal and was an active threat in attack, including from set pieces.
7.5
Guillermo Ochoa2 apps · 7 events
6 saves
87
▼

Ochoa made several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining a strong defensive presence and preserving Mexico's lead.

gs-0498Ochoa made several crucial saves throughout the match, maintaining a strong defensive presence and preserving Mexico's lead.
r32-0077Made several crucial saves to maintain Mexico's lead and ensure defensive stability.
7.3
Roberto Alvarado3 apps · 3 events
2 goals1 shot (1 on target)
877
▼

Alvarado sealed the victory with a well-taken rebound goal, showing good predatory instincts in the box.

gs-0498Alvarado sealed the victory with a well-taken rebound goal, showing good predatory instincts in the box.
r16-0047Provided a direct assist for Mexico's first goal and delivered dangerous crosses throughout the match.
r32-0077Provided a dangerous corner kick that created a significant goal-scoring opportunity for Mexico.
7
Érick Sánchez1 app
7
▼

Contributed significantly to Mexico's early control of the game through active participation in possession and dribbling.

gs-0257Contributed significantly to Mexico's early control of the game through active participation in possession and dribbling.
7
G. Mora2 apps
68
▼

Had a shot on target that was saved by the goalkeeper.

r16-0046Had a shot on target that was saved by the goalkeeper.
r32-0078Scored the opening goal for Mexico, setting the tone for the match.
7
Carlos Acevedo1 app
7
▼

Made crucial saves, including a diving stop from Yeboah Zamora, to maintain Mexico's lead.

r32-0077Made crucial saves, including a diving stop from Yeboah Zamora, to maintain Mexico's lead.
6.5
Edson Álvarez2 apps · 2 events
2 headers
76
▼

Álvarez effectively cleared a threatening corner, showcasing his defensive aerial ability and awareness.

gs-0497Álvarez effectively cleared a threatening corner, showcasing his defensive aerial ability and awareness.
r16-0046Had a shot on target from a corner, contributing to Mexico's late attacking pressure.
6
Angulo1 app
6
▼

Angulo contributed to the team's attacking efforts with a shot inside the box, but it was ultimately blocked.

gs-0496Angulo contributed to the team's attacking efforts with a shot inside the box, but it was ultimately blocked.
6
E. Gutiérrez1 app
6
▼

Had a shot on target that was saved by the goalkeeper.

r16-0046Had a shot on target that was saved by the goalkeeper.
5.3
César Montes3 apps · 1 events
1 block
727
▼

Montes provided a solid defensive block, preventing a dangerous shot from reaching the goal.

gs-0497Montes provided a solid defensive block, preventing a dangerous shot from reaching the goal.
r16-0042Received two yellow cards resulting in a red card, and also missed a clear scoring opportunity.
r32-0077Produced a powerful header from a corner that forced a spectacular save, showing attacking threat from defense.
5
Raúl Rangel1 app · 2 events
2 saves
5
▼

Made some saves but committed a foul that resulted in a penalty for England.

r16-0045Made some saves but committed a foul that resulted in a penalty for England.
5
E. Lira1 app
5
▼

Was involved in numerous midfield challenges and fouls, indicating a combative but sometimes undisciplined presence.

r16-0045Was involved in numerous midfield challenges and fouls, indicating a combative but sometimes undisciplined presence.
3
Jesús Gallardo1 app
3
▼

Received a straight red card early in the second half, severely compromising Mexico's defensive stability.

r16-0043Received a straight red card early in the second half, severely compromising Mexico's defensive stability.

Match observations

  • gs-001The match between Mexico and South Africa was preceded by an elaborate opening ceremony, featuring national flags and mascots on the pitch.
  • gs-001The stadium was filled with enthusiastic supporters, creating a vibrant atmosphere with confetti falling throughout the event.
  • gs-001Mexico secured a 2-0 victory over South Africa, with goals registered in the 8th and 67th minutes.
  • gs-025The match, a group stage encounter in the FIFA World Cup, saw Mexico and South Korea engage in an exciting contest.
  • gs-025Mexico established an early lead through a well-constructed attacking move, but South Korea swiftly responded with an equaliser, highlighting their quick passing and offensive capabilities.
  • gs-025The game featured end-to-end action, with both teams displaying a strong desire to advance the ball and create scoring opportunities.
  • gs-049The match saw Czechia apply early pressure, creating several chances primarily from set pieces and wide runs.
  • gs-049Mexico, however, proved clinical on the counter-attack, converting their opportunities efficiently.
  • gs-049The game's momentum shifted decisively after Mexico's first goal, leading to a comfortable victory.
  • r16-004This was a high-scoring and intensely contested match, featuring numerous attacking passages from both sides. England established leads twice, but Mexico demonstrated remarkable resilience, especially after being reduced to nine players.
  • r16-004The game was characterised by physical challenges, resulting in multiple fouls and two red cards for the home side. Both goalkeepers delivered strong performances, making several crucial stops.
  • r16-004Mexico's ability to convert two penalties late in the match, despite their numerical disadvantage, highlighted their determination to secure a draw.
  • r32-007The match was played in a vibrant atmosphere with a large and engaged crowd.
  • r32-007Mexico displayed strong attacking intent, creating numerous chances and converting two to secure a comfortable lead.
  • r32-007Ecuador showed flashes of individual brilliance but struggled to consistently break down the Mexican defence.

Statistical profile

High Press

Attack

Attack rating0.8420th/48
Shots per match15.06th/48
Chance quality0.07641st/48

Defence

Defence rating0.7727th/48
Goalkeeper rating0.5323rd/48

GK: Luis Malagón

Set pieces

Set-piece goal share9.5%30th/48
Penalty conversion72.5%22nd/48
Penalty save rate20.0%39th/48

Style

Possession55.0%10th/48
Press intensity16.15th/48
Directness6.715th/48
Crossing volume441.217th/48
Long ball volume37.015th/48
Build-up length6.026th/48

Squad

Avg. minutes per starter1,64422nd/48
Club familiarity0.00036th/48

Workload class: light

Attack and defence ratings from the model; style metrics from recent international matches; penalty rates via Bayesian estimation; goalkeeper rating from shot-prevention data. Rank is out of 48 tournament teams.

Where goals come from

Phase of play · scored & conceded

Scored6 goals · 161 shots
Conceded9 goals · 130 shots
  • Open play
  • Set piece
  • Counter
  • Penalty

Share of goals by how the chance began, across 10 matches (CopaAmerica2024,WC2018,WC2022). Shoot-out kicks are excluded. Descriptive metric — does not feed the published probabilities. Methodology →

Group-stage matchups

vs South Africa2026-06-11
Win57.0%
Draw30.4%
Loss12.6%
Expected goals for1.30
Expected goals against0.59
Likeliest score1-0 (18.9%)
Both teams score33.2%
Clean sheet55.3%
Full fixture analysis →
vs South Korea2026-06-18
Win46.6%
Draw28.7%
Loss24.7%
Expected goals for1.23
Expected goals against0.86
Likeliest score1-0 (14.4%)
Both teams score41.6%
Clean sheet42.3%
Full fixture analysis →
vs Czech Republic2026-06-24
Win45.6%
Draw27.5%
Loss27.0%
Expected goals for1.29
Expected goals against0.95
Likeliest score1-1 (13.8%)
Both teams score45.3%
Clean sheet38.7%
Full fixture analysis →

Probabilities from the calibrated ensemble model. xG from the Dixon–Coles fit. See each fixture page for full analysis.

Rating & probability history

12 snapshots · 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24
Mexico — Elo and tournament-winner probability over 12 snapshotsMexico trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1858.0 to 1860.0 (+2.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.4% to 1.0% (+0.6pp).Elo rating18491856186218692026-05-22 · Elo 1858.02026-06-06 · Elo 1860.0 (+2.0 vs prior)2026-06-06 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-07 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-08 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-10 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-23 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)2026-06-24 · Elo 1860.0 (0 vs prior)Tournament-winner probability0.0%0.6%1.1%1.7%2026-05-22 · 0.4% (CI 0.2%–0.9%)2026-06-06 · 0.7% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (+0.2pp vs prior)2026-06-06 · 0.7% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-07 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.1% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (−0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-08 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (+0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-10 · 0.6% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)2026-06-23 · 1.1% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (+0.5pp vs prior)2026-06-24 · 1.0% (CI 0.5%–1.3%) (0pp vs prior)snapshot date (2026-05-22 → 2026-06-24)

Mexico trajectory: 12 snapshots between 2026-05-22 and 2026-06-24 (33 days). Elo moved from 1858.0 to 1860.0 (+2.0). Tournament-winner probability moved from 0.4% to 1.0% (+0.6pp).

Each point is one model build. The shaded band is the bootstrap 90% credible interval around the tournament-winner probability.

Recent form (10 matches)

Record3W · 5D · 2L
Goals11–10
Form
DateOpponentScoreResultCompetition
2026-03-31NBelgium1–1DFriendly
2026-03-28HPortugal0–0DFriendly
2026-02-25HIceland4–0WFriendly
2026-01-25ABolivia1–0WFriendly
2026-01-22APanama1–0WFriendly
2025-11-18NParaguay1–2LFriendly
2025-11-15HUruguay0–0DFriendly
2025-10-14HEcuador1–1DFriendly
2025-10-11NColombia0–4LFriendly
2025-09-09NSouth Korea2–2DFriendly

martj42 international results (CC0) · last 10 matches · ~2 years.

Head-to-head vs group opponents

OpponentMeetingsW-D-LLast meeting
South Korea159-2-42026 — Win (1–0) · FIFA World Cup
South Africa53-1-12026 — Win (2–0) · FIFA World Cup
Czech Republic10-0-12000 — Loss (1–2) · Lunar New Year Cup

All meetings via the martj42 international results dataset.

Major tournaments — most recent appearance

TournamentYearFinishW-D-LSince then
Gold Cup2025Champion5-1-0
  • Same head coach (Javier Aguirre) since 2024
  • 34/34 of current pool (100%) were active that year
Copa América2024Group stage1-1-1
  • Same head coach (Javier Aguirre) since 2024
  • 28/34 of current pool (82%) were active that year
FIFA World Cup2022Group stage1-1-1
  • New head coach since then — now Javier Aguirre (appointed 2024)
  • 18/34 of current pool (53%) were active that year

Source: FIFA archives. Penalty outcomes resolved to W/L.

Most similar past team-tournaments

Closest comparable teams from past major tournaments (1990-2024), by squad strength, group draw, and recent form. Shown for context, not a prediction.

  • United States · Copa América 2024

    Exited at the group stage

    Comparable pre-tournament strength (Elo 1901) and group draw.

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